Page 37 - Investment Advisor March 2022

everyone around the world started get- What will they buy predominantly? I understand you were in the South
ting sick [from the coronavirus]. But More for improving quality of life, such Tower on 9/11. How did you escape?
we had no idea it would last this long. as their housing. A lot of people are I had a meeting on the 92nd floor of the
However, disruptions create problems, moving to bigger places outside large North Tower, but I decided to first see a guy
and those problems are reflected in high- cities. So housing is going to be strong, in the South Tower and was planning to
er prices. We’ve always thought that, as will everything that goes into [fur- see the other company in the North Tower
maybe, inflation was more permanent nishing] a house with goods. afterward. But of course, I never got there.
in nature. And with the supply-chain [But] the distribution problem [short- When I arrived on the 54th floor of
disruption, we couldn’t have been more ages] is really horrendous. So the sooner the South Tower, I saw pieces of paper
convinced than in the last six months. the better when they can get things off and metal coming down [outside]. The
the ships and onto trucks and trains, and guy I was meeting with told me, “I
What are your views on interest rate hikes, into stores. That’s going to help sales think a plane hit the top of the build-
which are anticipated to start in March? and businesses. And it will boost compa- ing.” Actually, the plane had hit the
The Fed and central banks other building.
around the world are way ‘Inflation will stay very sticky — I screamed and told all
behind in their ability to like Krazy Glue. Prices may adjust the traders in the room that
bring interest rates closer to I thought we should get the
inflation rates. They’ve been a little bit when the [economic] hell out of there and take the
lagging behind for about 12 disruption comes to an end. But stairs. I panicked. I said, “We
years. The Fed has a lot to do. have to run out. I don’t know
If they increase rates by only once minimum wages and other what’s going on, but I don’t
a quarter of a percent in the compensation go up, they don’t come feel good about this.” A lot of
first quarter, the next four the guys in the room followed
quarters would still leave the down because insurance premiums me to the stairway. I encour-
Fed funds rate of one and a go up. Everything goes up.’ aged hundreds of men to walk
quarter percent, when infla- downstairs with me.
tion is running above 5%. After walking down about 15
nies’ stock prices because earnings will floors, I took the elevator, which I know
How does this affect retirees and be good since the companies are passing you’re not supposed to do. But it was
pre-retirees depending on fixed on their higher prices. packed. I walked out of the building just
income savings? as the second plane was coming and hit
Keeping money in the bank leaves you with What’s the biggest threat to the the [South] Tower, the one I’d been in. It
less money to spend every day that you U.S. economy? hit the building at an angle. Closer to the
keep it there. You have to put your money Politics — what’s going on in China, bottom of that angle was the 54th floor.
in stocks. You can’t leave it in fixed income for example, and what’s going on with It was the Tower that fell first.
because it’s at the bank, and the banks are Ukraine and Russia. Those things are not What sticks in my mind most is a
giving you nothing at all in interest. predictable. I’m really fearful because woman in a red dress who fell from the
there are aggressors in the world today Tower. She had broken through a win-
Broadly, what’s your forecast for the that have a different mindset [versus dow. I remember the red dress flying
U.S. economy this year? earlier eras]. They’re very unpredictable. and her landing. I thought, “Am I living
The economy will do better if all the through this, or am I dreaming it?”
job openings that we have can be filled. What’s your outlook for the stock
There’s a lot of demand for people. Due market for this this year? You were so lucky that you didn’t get
to the pandemic, working from home The stock market will go up about 15%. stuck in the elevator and that you got
has accelerated, and different ways of life Companies have been able to pass on high- out of the building!
in different places and different ways of er prices. Earnings will stay pretty good. About 10 years ago, a guy came over to
spending [have emerged]. People will be me as I was having dinner in a restaurant.
able to continue to spend, but the spend- In 2001, Americans were shocked by He said, “I want to thank you for saving
ing will be different. It won’t be going into the terrorists attacking the two World my life because I followed you down-
stores in the mall. More of it will be online. Trade Center towers in New York City. stairs when you told us to leave.”

MARCH 2022 INVESTMENT ADVISOR 35