3647 / What is sequence of returns risk? How can sequence of returns risk affect a taxpayer’s retirement income strategy?

Essentially, if a greater proportion of low or negative returns occur during the early years of retirement, when taxpayer is taking withdrawals, the taxpayer’s overall returns are going to be lower than if those negative or low returns occurred at a later point in the taxpayer’s (and the investment’s) lifetime. Mathematically, this is because the withdrawal of a fixed dollar amount from a portfolio when the portfolio value is down requires the liquidation and distribution of a larger percentage of the portfolio than would be required when the portfolio value is high. These early low (or negative) returns and distributions have a larger impact on the compounded value of the portfolio if they occur in early years. Negative returns could even cause a portion of the principal investment to be lost.

Even if the return is simply lower than average in the early years while distributions are being taken, the investment will generate an overall lower return because the investment will gain less value early on, meaning there will be a lower account value to generate growth even in later, higher return periods.

When the taxpayer is making withdrawals from his or her investment accounts, the risk of outliving the retirement assets is magnified when negative returns occur in early years.

Planning Point: Financial planners modeling sequence of returns risk for their clients can illustrate the potential impact of (1) reducing market volatility of the overall portfolio, (2) reducing withdrawal amounts in early years or delaying withdrawals from the portfolio in down markets, and (3) maintaining a balanced portfolio so that withdrawal amounts can be paid from assets with a stable asset value rather than from selling volatile assets in a depressed market – as strategies to mitigate the potential impact of sequence of returns risk.