El-Erian: Election Means 'New Power Structure' in U.S.

News November 06, 2024 at 02:07 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • Economic issues weighed on voters' minds, Allianz's chief economic advisor suggests.
  • Bond moves reflect expected deregulation, inflation concerns and rethinking Fed action, he says.
  • El-Erian notes high growth and strong employment also would be good for equities.
Mohamed Aly El-Erian, chief economic advisor for Allianz

The U.S. presidential election signals a major transformation for the country, according to economist Mohamed El-Erian, who said the financial markets were reacting rationally Wednesday.

Stocks, bond yields and bitcoin all advanced following Donald Trump's presidential win and Republicans' gaining Senate control, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging to a record high.

"This is not just a big win for President Trump, this is not just a big win for Republicans. This is the emergence of a new power structure in the United States," El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, said in an interview on BloombergTV.

"The markets are reacting in an incredibly rational fashion," he said, adding that financial markets have done much better than political scientists in recent months in predicting what could happen and in reacting to what has happened.

The fixed income market response reflects an embrace of growth resulting from the deregulation expected under a Trump administration, concern over high inflation and revisiting conventional wisdom about the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy, he said.

"All three are playing in," El-Erian added. "Over the next few weeks and months we're going to have a better feel for which one will prevail or not."

That higher growth would be good for equities, and the Fed not having to cut rates for the "right reasons" — that the economy and employment are doing well — "that's good for equities too," he said.

A higher deficit, higher debt and higher inflation are the issues equities investors should worry about, El-Erian added.

Meanwhile, in a post on X, formerly Twitter, El-Erian suggested pocketbook concerns and the Biden administration's response drove U.S. voters to choose Donald Trump and Republicans in Tuesday's elections.

"Per the exit polls, 'the economy' was a top-of-mind issue that, in its communication, the Administration fumbled in three major ways," he wrote.

"First, by following the Federal Reserve's lead in 2022 in characterizing inflation as 'transitory.' Second, by being insufficiently sensitive to the fact, that, subsequently, a declining inflation rate did not translate into what voters were hoping for most — a lower price level/cost of living," El-Erian posted.

"Third, by failing to convey effectively the extent to which U.S. economic growth has out-performed other advanced countries."

In another post El-Erian noted: "The rather limited spillover effect of higher U.S. yields to other advanced countries reflects #markets anticipation of even greater divergence in economic growth, monetary policy outlook, and inflation prospects — that is, even larger U.S. growth outperformance, a less dovish Federal Reserve compared to the (European Central Bank), and relatively higher U.S. inflation."

Photo: Bloomberg

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