On Election Day, Here's What Advisors Are Watching

News November 04, 2024 at 02:29 PM
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2024-Presidential-Election-between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

While political watchers are busy prognosticating who will win the White House Tuesday, advisors, too, are bracing for a new president and a new Congress.

Two developments over the weekend show Vice President Kamala Harris is headed toward a "very narrow" victory in the presidential election, according to Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments. However, "several recounts are certain," Valliere opined.

"Stunning polls" showed former President Donald Trump "may be in trouble — is he really trailing by 3 points in Iowa? And is Trump really ahead in Florida by just five points?" Valliere asked in his Monday newsletter.

Harris, according to Valliere, has "the slightly easier path to winning 270 votes."

Last minute polls, Valliere wrote, "can be erratic, but there's a sense among political strategists that Trump is losing support in the Midwest; if Iowa is this close, could he be fading in Wisconsin or Michigan?"

Meanwhile, is "winning Wisconsin and Michigan" enough for Harris? Valliere said. "Pennsylvania is the big prize, and Trump seems virtually tied there."

There's also growing dissent in the Trump camp, according to Valliere. "Several of his long-time staffers are in near-revolt, angry that Trump will not take direction and is unwilling to stick to campaign issues in his rambling rallies."

Advisor Concerns

Michael Lofley, advisor with HBKS Wealth Advisors in Stuart, Florida, said he's most concerned with clients "panicking and overreacting to the results — in either direction. Things are volatile and emotions are running high, which can lead to bad decisions."

Depending on which party ends up controlling the Senate and House, "there could be massive repercussions for markets, inflation, energy policy, immigration policies, the deficit, and tax policy," said David Flores Wilson, managing partner at Sincerus Advisory in New York.

"In general, we would be concerned from a markets perspective if one party won control over the White House and the legislative branch, since markets have performed worse historically under one-party rule," Flores said.

A Trump win "combined with Republicans flipping the Senate and holding onto the House, could be inflationary due to large tariff hikes on imports and mass deportations of low-cost labor," Flores said.

"On the other hand, corporations would likely benefit from a lower C corp rate, while wealthy individuals could benefit from lower tax brackets and a large estate tax exemption. In theory, Americans would benefit in the short-run from loose energy policy under a red wave scenario, but the massive amount of U.S. debt outstanding would continue to climb higher," he added.

Tariffs, according to Ian Bloom, owner of Open World Financial Life Planning in Raleigh, North Carolina, "are pretty likely to continue to spike inflation, which is Trump's current economic policy initiative. So that's a concern."

Sincerus will also "closely follow diversions from policy touted on the campaign versus what the new president will actually try to implement in the weeks and months following the election," Flores said.

"A divided Congress appears to be the most likely outcome, which could be a positive for both markets and the U.S. economy," added Jon Ulin, CEO of Ulin & Co. Wealth Management in Boca Raton, Florida.

"In such a scenario, major legislation that might alter the economic trajectory would be challenging to pass," Ulin said. "While we might see modest moves on tax cuts, tariffs, or immigration policy, any changes are unlikely to be as extreme as campaign rhetoric has suggested."

A top policy issue that Ulin is watching is the expiring tax provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017.

The 2017 tax law "introduced sweeping changes including reduced individual tax rates, increased standard deductions, and expanded child tax credits," Ulin said. If these provisions are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, "the effect may be felt across a broad swath of taxpayers, not just the top 1%."

If Harris wins "and allows the TCJA to expire next year, the impact could extend to middle- and upper-middle-class Americans," Ulin said. "Estimates suggest up to 90% of taxpayers could see tax increases on marginal tax rates, a standard deduction reduction and reduced child tax credits.

"A smaller percentage of Americans may be affected by the estate tax exemption amount expected to be greatly reduced."

Harris proposals "include raising the top individual tax rate back to 39.6%, increasing taxes on long-term capital gains for top earners, and adjusting estate tax exemptions downward, which could affect middle- and upper-income households more extensively," Ulin said.

Trump, meanwhile, "supports extending the TCJA indefinitely, which includes maintaining lower individual and corporate tax rates," Ulin added. "His plan is expected to benefit high-income earners and businesses but could lead to more deficit spending."

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