Wall Street is ending the week on a positive note, with stocks hitting an intraday record on speculation the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates this year — bolstering the outlook for Corporate America.
Another rally in the S&P 500's most-influential group — technology — put the gauge on track to become the last of the three major U.S. benchmarks to close at an all-time high.
Fueled by hopes the artificial-intelligence boom will keep powering the market higher, the benchmark topped 4,800 on Friday — defying concerns that the rally remains concentrated in a narrower group of shares. (It traded near 4,836 as of 2:40 p.m. in New York.)
Equities pushed higher on Friday as a drop in Treasury volatility continued to bode well for risk-taking. Also helping sentiment was a report seen by many as "Fed-friendly," showing a mix of high consumer confidence and lower inflation expectations.
"Overall, it was an encouraging round of data from the Fed's perspective," said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
The S&P 500 added 1%, erasing this week's losses. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 outperformed as chipmakers once again led gains, with Texas Instruments Inc. up 3.5% and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. heading toward a record.
Megacaps also pushed higher, though Tesla Inc. struggled. Treasury 10-year yields were little changed. The same group of companies that led a stellar run in stocks last year is once again fueling gains in 2024.
So far in January, Nvidia Corp., Microsoft Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. — all part of the "Magnificent Seven" — are the biggest point gainers in the S&P 500. Meantime, semiconductor shares got a boost this week from a bullish forecast Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., which bolstered prospects for the tech industry in 2024.
'AI Bubble' Is Back
Investors are reverting to owning growth, technology and the "AI bubble" as the 10-year Treasury yield settles into a range of 3.75% to 4.25%, according to Bank of America Corp.'s Michael Hartnett.
While U.S. shares saw redemptions at $4.3 billion in the week through Jan. 17, tech-stock funds saw the biggest two-week inflow since August at $4 billion, BofA said, citing EPFR Global data.
"Bottom line, we're off the bullish boil and the boat is less full, but it's still leaning firmly positive," said Peter Boockvar, author of the Boock Report.
History sides with further gains ahead. The S&P 500 went 512 trading days without a record through Thursday, which ranks as the sixth-longest streak since 1928, according to Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research.
One year after hitting new highs, the index has risen 13 out of 14 times by a median of 13% in that span.
The combination of better-than-expected growth and a meaningful improvement in inflation — which gives the Fed flexibility to cut interest rates — is giving UBS's Chief Investment Office greater conviction in its base case for an economic soft landing.
