An average healthy 65-year-old couple living to their projected actuarial longevity has a 75% chance that one partner will require a significant level of long-term care, according to research released Tuesday by HealthView Services, a producer of health care cost-projection software.
There is a 25% probability that both partners will need long-term care in a skilled nursing facility or an assisted living facility, or that both will require at least 44 hours per week of skilled care at home.
HealthView Services researchers drew on the firm's actuarial data to highlight the projected LTC costs, the probability that care will be required and duration of care, and the significant effect of age, gender, health condition and location on these expenses.
The report also shows the cost of different types of care and the importance of the amount of assistance that may be required when budgeting for home health care at the end of life.
"COVID-19 has led to a new focus on long-term care and driven a shift toward home health care as a preferred option," HealthView Services chief executive Ron Mastrogiovanni said in a statement.
"Although Americans may be more aware of long-term care as an issue, most choose to roll the dice when it comes to these expenses. Providing cost and probability of care data is a powerful starting point for LTC planning discussions between advisors and clients."
Gender Differences
The research shows a probability of 44% that an average 65-year-old man with no health conditions will need long-term care by his actuarial life expectancy of age 87.
Assuming national average costs across all states and a blended average of different types of LTC, the report says he can anticipate spending $237,368 — $123,881 present value — for an expected 660 days of care, about 22 months. This excludes Medicare premiums and co-pays.
A healthy 65-year-old woman living to an actuarial life expectancy of age 89 has a 56% probability of needing long-term care.
