Tax Law Unlikely to Help GOP in Midterm Elections: Brookings

In any case, she writes, changes in take-home pay resulting from the law are unlikely to influence voters' behavior because they typically do not vote based on their own pocketbooks.

Instead, the voting public is "sociotropic" in their economic assessments — meaning that they respond to the ups and downs of the economy as a whole rather than to changes in their own individual well-being.

As for the law's short-term stimulative effects, these are also unlikely to matter much, for two reasons: The effects are small, and the economy matters less for midterm election results.

Williamson also writes that the legislation is poorly situated to mobilize Republican voters, whose support for the legislation was always lukewarm. Only about 32% of Americans supported the legislation in the lead-up to its passage, an approval rating lower than that received by several major federal tax increases in years past.

In her paper, she examines how economic conditions have historically shaped electoral outcomes in the U.S., discusses how partisanship interacts with public attitudes about policy and assess the likelihood that public perceptions of the tax law will influence voting.

Finally, she reflects on the role of money in politics, and how the tax overhaul might change the money available to different political interests both in the near and long term.

Although Williamson concludes that the tax law is unlikely to be much of a player in the 2018 midterm elections, she suggests that in the long run, Republicans will likely benefit from its upward redistribution targeted to their donor class.

— Check out Republicans Weigh Abandoning Tax Cut 2.0 After SALT Backlash on ThinkAdvisor.