Jeremy Siegel: 'Brace for a Challenging Path in 2025'

News January 06, 2025 at 05:20 PM
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Economic indicators remain strong but investors should prepare for rough patches this year, economist Jeremy Siegel suggested in his weekly commentary Monday. He cited high stock valuations and uncertainty over the policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

"The new year begins with economic resilience, but investors should brace for a challenging path in 2025," the WisdomTree economist wrote in a post on the firm's website.

"Key economic indicators are still 'goldilocks' and signal continued growth at a sustainable pace," he added, citing expectations for 2.5% GDP growth for last year's fourth quarter, a healthy labor market and generally stable, inflation-sensitive commodities. "This backdrop portrays an economy maintaining balance despite heightened interest rates."

Potential tariffs and other Trump administration economic policies, however, create uncertainty, Siegel said. In addition, regulatory skepticism raises questions about growth in big tech.

"Valuation levels also warrant scrutiny. The S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio near 23.5x earnings is not cheap, especially as bond yields rise. If we had another 20% gain in stocks in 2025, this would harken back to the gains in 1997, 1998 and the 1999 tech bubble that caused a painful bear market starting in 2000," the Wharton School professor emeritus wrote.

While markets can temporarily sustain high valuations, "risks grow as they deviate further from earnings fundamentals," he added, noting that earnings grew less than 10% in both 2023 and 2024 as the stock market soared. In addition, long-term Treasury yields heighten competition for stocks, Siegel added.

Signs of rotation into less expensive sectors are missing, leaving potential overperformance for growth stocks in place, according to Siegel, who said such a rotation could lead to a broad market correction and a bear market in the Nasdaq.

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