Gold is heading for its biggest gain in 14 years, with a 27% advance fueled by U.S. monetary easing, sustained geopolitical risks and a wave of purchases by central banks.
While bullion has ticked lower since Donald Trump’s sweeping victory in November’s U.S. presidential election, its gains over 2024 still outstrip most other commodities.
Base metals have had a mixed year, while iron ore has tumbled, and lithium’s woes have deepened.
The varied performances over 2024 highlight the absence of a single, overriding driver that’s steered the complex’s fortunes, while also putting the spotlight on how metals, both base and precious, may fare next year.
For 2025, investors are focused on uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy, potential frictions from Trump’s presidency, and China’s efforts to revive growth.
Gold’s strong gains this year — which have seen the metal set a succession of records — may signal a possible shift in the market’s dynamics given they have come despite a stronger US dollar and rising real Treasury yields, both typically headwinds.
