Jeremy Siegel: 'Dip Can’t Be Ruled Out' for S&P in 2025

News December 23, 2024 at 06:01 PM
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The S&P 500 will likely generate tamer gains next year than in 2023 and 2024, and could even dip, Wharton School and WisdomTree economist Jeremy Siegel said Monday.

The stock index will likely deliver returns in the flat to 10% range, and "and a dip can’t be ruled out," he wrote in his weekly column on the WisdomTree website. The S&P 500 is up over 25% this year and rose nearly that much in 2023.

"Growth sectors may face headwinds from rising rates, and I can see a case where they are down 10%, while small-cap and value stocks, especially those tied to domestic production, could see a relative boost and have returns from 5-15%. However, all 12-month predictions come with a large standard error," Siegel said.

The equity market, however, shows no signs yet of a definitive rotation from “growth” to “value” stocks, the economist wrote.

"After years of growth stock dominance, led by the so-called 'Magnificent Seven,' we may see a shift in 2025. The Fed’s 'hawkish pause' triggered a pullback in momentum-driven names, with Tesla, in particular, facing notable profit-taking," he wrote, referring to the Federal Reserve's recent 25-basis-point cut in its benchmark interest rate.

"Rotation into undervalued sectors and regions may define the year, but it is too early to make the call while the AI narrative remains intact. No one knows when the rotation will occur. I continue to emphasize diversification and watch signs for the rotation," he said.

"Further rate cuts from the Fed are one likely catalyst, particularly for small-cap stocks that are more reliant on borrowing at short-term rates, but small stocks have potential tax and regulatory tailwinds," Siegel added.

The coming months will provide a better read on the incoming Trump administration's immigration and tariff policies, he noted.

Image: Bloomberg

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