Bulls stormed into the stock market at the start of trading Thursday, snapping up shares suddenly on sale less than 24 hours after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot sparked a historic rout.
But as Thursday’s session wears on and equity indexes trim or lose their initial gains altogether, the question is becoming whether this is just a dip — and if investors should be buying in at all.
The stock market is in a perilous place following a two-year bull run that’s virtually unrivaled in recent history. Signs of euphoria are everywhere: Positioning is stretched and demand for loss protection is muted.
Fund managers have reduced cash holdings to a record low and invested heavily in U.S. stocks. And the S&P 500 was 10% above its 200-day moving average.
“I would be careful,” said Eric Beiley, executive managing director of wealth management at Steward Partners. “Volatility is elevated and another selloff may be in store.”
All of these things are considered signals that a downturn is likely. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s discussion of what he’s seeing along with the central bank’s intention to go slower than expected with its anticipated interest rate cuts may be the most troubling aspect for equities investors.
“It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night,” was the way Powell described the outlook for rates at his press conference on Wednesday, as he urged caution in taking away restrictive policies.
“Be careful what you wish for,” said Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors. “Most were expecting and supportive of a hawkish cut, and that’s exactly what we got.”
Traders now have a unique challenge betting on where stocks go from here. History is no longer a guide. The previous macro setup — a strong economy with the prospect of Fed easing — has been flipped.
