The 4 Questions You'll Get at Holiday Parties This Year

Commentary December 13, 2024 at 05:13 PM
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The holidays are here. The stock market started partying early. The S&P 500 is up more than 26%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, about 16%. They are both exceeded by the Nasdaq Composite Index, up more than 27% year to date. Interest rates have started moving down.

Some people hope the party will go on forever. Others worry “Is this too good to be true?”

What questions might you get over the holidays?

Friends know you are a financial advisor. You might see a couple of clients on the party circuit too. If not, the market will come up in conversation.

Doctors and lawyers are pumped for free advice. Why should it be any different for you? You can expect plenty of questions at holiday gatherings. With this list, you will be prepared for the obvious ones.

1. What do you think about crypto, gold and other nontraditional investments? 

They ask: Gold is up about 19% year to date. The YTD returns on crypto look staggering. Shouldn’t I be getting in on the action?

The real question: Why should I stick with stocks when it looks like the action is elsewhere?

How about answering: Gold is considered a hedge against inflation. It has plenty of followers. Cryptocurrency is a newer asset class many love and many don’t. The key concept to understand is diversification.

Think of the equity portion of your investment portfolio as a plate of food you are served in a restaurant. The meat is the entrée. That’s the main event. The plate includes potatoes and two vegetables. Together, they comprise the meal. In post portfolios, the “meat” is the U.S. stock market investments, often large-cap companies. The potatoes and vegetables, which are smaller portions, are other components like alternative investments.

If something goes wrong, it might be “trouble in the vegetables” but the largest item on your plate, the U.S. stock market investments, should be suffering less.

2. Where do you see interest rates going?

They ask: Everyone says down, but inflation is still out there. What do you think?

The real question: Is there any chance I will get a second chance at locking in a higher interest rate?

How about answering:  Interest rates are cyclical, but it looks like the higher rate cycle has changed direction. Interest rates and inflation have a shared relationship. The Federal reserve has wanted inflation to come down. Raising interest rates theoretically slows the economy. Then the Fed can lower rates again.  The general assumption is inflation is somewhat under control, rates are expected to decline.  If you are a fixed income investor, you should start locking in higher rates now while they are still available.

3. Is a strong U.S. dollar a good thing? 

Doesn’t it sound like this makes sense? Who wants the word “weak” associated with their country? 

The real question: Why should a strong dollar worry me?

How about answering: We are fortunate the US dollar has long been the world’s reserve currency. OPEC’s oil is priced in dollars. When the dollar is weak, U.S. manufactured goods are more competitive in the world market. When the dollar is strong, they are more expensive in local currency. As a traveler, you want a strong dollar, because it goes further on vacation in Europe. Those European travelers think twice about visiting the U.S. because everything is more expensive for them.

4. How often should I be hearing from my advisor? 

The flashing lights for potential prospect should be visible now.

The real question: I cannot remember the last time I heard from my advisor. Is this normal?

How about answering: Like many things, it varies client by client. Some clients want you to be available when they call and that’s it. Others, like surgeons or airline pilots, might be difficult to reach. Let us assume we are talking about a regular person.

You and your advisor should talk about how often you want to hear from them and your preferred channel of communication. An annual portfolio review should be the absolute minimum. It makes sense to revisit your financial plan annually, which should be a separate meeting. A quarterly review call, checking in and talking about your portfolio makes sense too. That would be six conversations.

There will be other times your advisor needs your attention immediately. There will be times when you want to speak to them. All these calls should be during business hours on workdays.

It might vary by advisor, but this is how I do it. It is why I have a smaller clientele than other advisors.

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