SEC Rule Predictions: What's In, What's Out in 2025

Analysis December 11, 2024 at 03:47 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • Paul Atkins, Trump's choice for SEC chairman, is "the godfather of conservative securities regulation," a consultant says.
  • Attorneys expect a slowdown or halt on texting fines and a potential Custody Rule revamp, among other changes.
  • New guidance is anticipated for Reg BI and the marketing rule.
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Wall Street and the industry at large are keen watchers of who will take the helm — and set the agenda — at the Securities and Exchange Commission when Donald Trump returns to the presidency in January.

Former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins emerged as Trump’s nominee on Dec. 4. Atkins is CEO of Patomak Global Partners LLC in Washington.

Atkins is “the godfather of conservative securities regulation and very well-known and experienced,” said Igor Rozenblit, managing partner at Iron Road Partners, a risk management consultancy. “He’s a relatively non-controversial pick” for the incoming Trump administration.

Enforcing and completing some rules will drop off the agency’s list while others — including controversial ones — will likely reemerge in different forms next year, industry attorneys predict.

For instance, while some predict the agency’s off-channel communications crackdown will cease, others say to expect less severe sanctions.

"In terms of off-channel and digital communications more broadly, we will likely see a bigger focus on the essentials: making sure organizations are meeting their core recordkeeping and oversight obligations, and ensuring that they have visibility into where and how their firm is doing business, whether that be on WhatsApp, text messaging, video conferencing, or AI-enabled technologies," said Robert Cruz, vice president, Regulatory & Information Governance at Smarsh. "The rules are long-standing and movement toward deregulation doesn’t change obligations to protect businesses and mitigate the risks to a customer’s information."

Also, new guidance is anticipated for Regulation Best Interest and the marketing rule.

Next year, “expect more guidance from the Commission and perhaps the reversal of some previous guidance around the SEC’s marketing rule,” Rozenblit said.

Valerie Mirko, leader of Armstrong Teasdale’s Securities Regulation and Litigation practice area, stated on a recent podcast that she expects a “slimming down” of the Reg BI guidance that came out during SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s tenure, as well as marketing rule guidance.

While Reg BI will continue to be enforced under a new chairman, Mirko said she sees a more “back to basics” enforcement approach with “a return to the focus on conflicts and disclosure and a less intense focus on the [rule’s] Care Obligation. In practice, I expect greater focus on data driven investigations with an emphasis on conflicts and disclosure case theories. I also expect a move away from considering the facts and circumstances of individual customers.”

The marketing rule was an enormous undertaking by the commission, added Sara Crovitz, partner at Stradley Ronon in Washington, on the podcast with Mirko. “It left a lot of open questions, and the [SEC] staff really has not been hugely willing to answer any of those questions.” Addressing those questions could be an area for additional guidance next year, Crovitz said.

Other “very helpful guidance” is likely forthcoming as it relates to ETF share-class relief, Crovitz added. “This will be exemptive relief to allow mutual funds to have an ETF share class, or vice versa — an ETF to have a mutual fund share class.”

The cybersecurity rule for advisors is the only rule "that has a small chance of being finished” by year-end, Mirko added. The controversial Predictive Data Analytics rule “is dead in the water.”

Custody Rule Revamp

“I think we would all agree that the current Custody Rule is a bit unmanageable,” Crovitz added.

If a Republican-led SEC were to take up the Custody Rule, Mirko and Crovitz agreed that it would be significantly different. The rule's cryprocurrency provisions “would be removed,” Mirko said.

The SEC's Custody Rule requires investment advisors to keep client assets, including crypto assets, with qualified custodians.

Rozenblit agreed that the Custody Rule may likely be modified “to make it easier for digital assets.”

"It is very difficult to custody digital assets because they exist on the blockchain and not many qualified custodians are able to accept them," Rozenblit said. "That makes it very difficult to purchase digital assets for investment managers because they would need to be held in custody. If digital assets were exempted from the Custody Rule it would make it a lot easier for investment advisors to purchase digital assets on behalf of clients."

SEC Under Atkins

An AI-generated breakdown of Atkins’ various speeches over the years, performed by Iron Roads Partners, predicted that Atkins “would set a business-friendly tone with the Commission now focusing on capital formation, innovation and product access.”

Another prediction: Rulemaking “may slow down due to an intense emphasis on conducting rigorous, defensible economic analysis.”

An Atkins-led SEC "may favor a principles-based 'accredited investor' or 'qualified client' definition that relies on competence and disclosure rather than on rigid wealth thresholds," according to the AI analysis. "For example, revised eligibility rules could allow some retail investors who hold a relevant professional credential to invest in certain sophisticated products, expanding access while maintaining basic safeguards."

As to enforcement, an Atkins SEC "would remain supportive of enforcement actions targeting fraud," the analysis states.

Exams, meanwhile, "may focus more on providing guidance and issuing fewer enforcement referrals," according to the analysis. "Their approach could become more aligned with policy divisions, with less emphasis on their 'law enforcement' role."

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