Annuities' Bubble Shines! The World, Not So Much.

Analysis November 27, 2024 at 03:03 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • Wink reported fantastic Q3 sales growth.
  • Ratings agency analysts wonder how Trump's policies could affect financial services.
  • Geopolitical tension could have mixed effects on annuity issuers.
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Annuity market trends were strong in the third quarter, with executives from companies like Equitable, F&G and Jackson having little to say about sales beyond expressions of joy.

Helpful factors include an increase in the number of baby boomers retiring, interest rates that are higher than they were during the 2009-2022 lower-for-longer period and more financial advisors' willingness to recommend annuities to some clients.

Kevin Luebbers, a senior vice president at Jackson National Life Distributors, reacted to LIMRA's latest quarterly annuity sales survey results with a statement expressing satisfaction about the company's high, diversified sales at a time when competitors were also performing well.

"We continue to be encouraged by the growth of the annuity industry, with LIMRA reporting that U.S. annuity sales have recorded 10 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, and 16 consecutive quarters of growth overall," Luebbers said.

But analysts at Moody's Investors Service see conditions in the world outside annuity issuers' happy bubble of sunshine changing in ways that could challenge most of the companies it rates.

"The economy will likely face a difficult external backdrop going forward, not least because the new Trump administration will likely tighten trade barriers, specifically targeting China," Moody's analysts say in a new commentary. "Competition between the U.S. and China will shape policies, potentially raise global trade barriers and trigger trade or currency wars."

What it means: The next few months could be a great time for a client to own an annuity that provides partial or complete contract value guarantees but a more difficult time to be the insurer or reinsurer responsible for supporting those guarantees.

Annuity sales: LIMRA found that the annuity sales of insurers participating in its third-quarter survey were 29% higher in the latest quarter than in the third quarter.

Wink Inc., a private firm that surveys a similar group of insurers about a somewhat different list of annuity types, found 28% year-over-year growth in sales for the variable annuity types it covers and 46% growth in non-variable annuity sales.

Here are the Wink survey results by product type:

  • Non-variable indexed annuities: $37 billion (up 58%)
  • Multi-year guaranteed annuities: $42 billion (up 37%)
  • Registered index-linked annuities: $16 billion (up 33%)
  • Traditional variable annuities: $15 billion (up 22%)
  • Traditional fixed annuities: $517 million (up 4.2%)

The backdrop: Moody's analysts suggested that the change in the U.S. presidential administration will add uncertainty about fiscal, immigration and trade policies.

The credit and insurance strength rating agency is not going to try to account for the impacts of the possible changes until they are implemented, the analysts say.

The Federal Reserve Board and other central banks will probably respond to the increased uncertainty by putting off any efforts to lower interest rates in 2025, the analysts predict.

The impact: If the Moody's analysts are correct, any big changes that hurt the economy could cause problems for the teams managing annuity issuers' enormous portfolios of corporate bonds, mortgages, mortgage-backed securities and private credit holdings.

Any downturn that affects financial services companies' willingness to provide the derivatives that insurers use to provide index-linked annuities and hedge variable annuity subaccounts could also cause problems.

But stabilization of interest rates could help annuity issuers by improving the rates the issuers can get when they invest a portion of annuity buyers' payments in bonds or derivatives tied to the performance of bonds.

Market volatility could also increase consumers' interest in products that offer value or income guarantees.

Bryan Hodgens, head of LIMRA research, said he expects sales of products like registered index-linked annuities to remain strong through 2025.

"While interest rates have declined, heightened market uncertainty will likely continue to draw investors seeking principal protection and guaranteed growth," Hodgens said.

Credit: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

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