Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson, well known for his bearish views on U.S. equities in recent years, has an outright bullish outlook for 2025.
The strategist expects the S&P 500 to end next year around the 6,500 level, up 11% from Friday’s close, with gains driven by improving economic growth and further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. He previously had a target of 5,400 for the benchmark in mid-2025.
“U.S. valuations are rich, but this is helped by better macro in the U.S., potential future U.S. tariff policy being more negative for rest-of-world growth, and animal spirits leading to the rally broadening out,” the Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note. Deregulation under the administration of Donald Trump will also benefit U.S. corporates, though the impact of other potential policies is unclear, he said.
After correctly predicting the stock selloff in 2022, Wilson held a bearish outlook through 2023 as markets rallied. He finally gave in and boosted his target for the S&P 500 earlier this year, and said the benchmark could even reach 6,100 by the end of 2024.
U.S. stocks have already surged over 50% since the start of 2023, lifted by a frenzy surrounding artificial intelligence developments, a surprisingly resilient economy and interest-rate cuts.
“We expect this broadening in earnings growth to continue as the Fed cuts rates into next year and business cycle indicators continue to improve,” Wilson wrote in Morgan Stanley’s 2025 outlook.
