5 Ways Trump's Election Could Affect Life and Annuity Players

Analysis November 06, 2024 at 01:07 PM
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Donald Trump won a second term in the White House Tuesday, Republicans took back control of the Senate, and Republicans appeared to be on track to hold on control of the House.

How could that affect the companies that write life insurance and annuities, the clients that use the products, and the financial professionals who help clients choose and manage the products?

Here are five possibilities.

1. The federal judges in the U.S. District courts in Texas may become key financial services policy gatekeepers.

President Joe Biden's administration has adopted regulations intended to protect consumers from bad financial advice and bad financial services products.

Companies and financial services professionals who oppose the regulations have usually managed to block implementation of the regulations by filing suits in the federal courts in Texas. The judges at the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals have usually upheld the rulings of the judges in Texas.

The judges in Texas tend to be warm to Republican perspectives.

With Trump returning to the White House, one quick rule of thumb for predicting what rules or interpretations will prevail may be to ask, "What will those judges in Texas think?"

2. The U.S. Labor Department is unlikely to impose any major new fiduciary obligations on agents or advisors who help clients roll assets from retirement accounts into annuities.

Trump let an Obama-era Labor Department fiduciary rule die in court during his first term in office.

When Biden became president and his Labor Department officials revived a more focused version of the fiduciary rule effort, opponents used lawsuits filed in the federal courts in Texas and Florida to block it. A Texas court judge agreed to delay implementation.

The new Trump administration seems likely to repeat the strategy from the first Trump term and let the new fiduciary rule effort die in court.

But some Republicans have also emphasized their interest in fighting financial fraud.

In Montana, for example, the state's auditor is also the state's insurance commissioner. James Brown, a lawyer, won an election for the auditor post Tuesday by promising to protect businesses against red tape. But he also promised to "safeguard Montana seniors from financial abuse."

Many states have just started implementing new annuity sales standards based on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation Best Interest.

Reg BI does not require an annuity seller to put a client's interests first but does require the annuity seller to provide more disclosures and make sure that an annuity purchase is really in the client's interest.

The collision of hostility to red tape and populist fury about financial fraud could lead state insurance commissioners to be aggressive about enforcing the new Reg BI-based standards.

3. The return of a lower estate tax exemption looks unlikely.

In 2002, the exemption for the federal estate tax was just $1 million for an individual and $2 million for a couple.

Many moderately affluent people used estate planning services and cash-value life insurance to reduce their estate tax obligations.

Congress then began to weaken the appeal of those services by increasing the estate tax exemption. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 accelerated that shift, by increasing the exemption for an individual to $11.18 million for 2018, from $5.49 million in 2017.

The exemption is poised to return to an inflation-adjusted version of the 2017 level, or about $6 million, Jan. 1, 2026, from $13.61 million 2024. The possibility that the exemption could fall sharply created openings for financial professionals to start estate planning conversations with clients.

Now that Trump is returning to the White House, the odds that Congress will let the estate tax exemption snap back to 2017 levels have fallen sharply.

4. The SEC may take a friendly approach to developing the new registration process for registered index-linked annuities.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently complied with a new federal law by agreeing to let insurers register registered index-linked annuities, or RILA contracts, and other market-linked annuities, using a relatively simple form, rather than the long, complicated form that a whole company seeking to sell stock to the public uses.

But the SEC included some provisions, such as requirements for warning investors about the worst possible outcomes, that irritated SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce and some people in the annuity industry.

Increased Republican influence in Washington could make the SEC somewhat warmer to issuers registering annuities and possibly increase the flow of new RILA products.

5. Tax breaks and Medicare changes related to long-term care could perform well.

Trump has talked about creating new tax breaks for caregivers and finding other ways to support in-home care for older people.

Medicare program managers began to let insurers add some home care benefits and other support benefits, such as meal delivery benefits, to Medicare Advantage plans during Trump's first term.

Republicans and Democrats have often worked together on long-term care proposals and Medicare benefits proposals in recent years, and that work could continue over the next four years.

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