The U.S. election next month will be a clash of visions that reverberates through the global economy for years to come.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in some cases have skirted how they will handle pivotal issues for major industries such as technology. Crucially, that includes how each candidate would proceed on antitrust efforts targeting the tech giants in the wake of the Biden administration's stepped-up enforcement.
Still, there are clear business consequences to the presidential and congressional elections. Here are five of the industries with the most at stake on Election Day:
Big Banks
The eight largest U.S. banks face impending requirements to hold more capital to better protect their solvency against a financial shock. That means less money to pass on to shareholders through stock buybacks or dividends.
Banks also argue the new rule will curtail lending to consumers and businesses. The presidential election will likely determine how soon the requirements kick in and how much additional capital they need.
If Harris prevails, US regulators will likely move forward with a provision of Basel III, an international regulatory accord reached in response to the 2008 global financial crisis.
Large institutions like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan would face a 9% increase in capital requirements under a plan the Federal Reserve previewed last month.
In a Democratic administration, Bloomberg Intelligence sees a 60% chance the requirement will finalized by the third quarter of 2025.
But if Trump wins, the rule-making effort would be put off and ultimately softened significantly, said Isaac Boltansky, managing director at BTIG. Trump also would lean toward less regulation of the financial sector across a range of other areas, he said.
Higher capital requirements generally reduce bank profits, though it's difficult to estimate the bottom-line impact until all details are finalized, Boltansky added.
Health Care
Insurers such as Centene and UnitedHealth face a projected $25 billion revenue drop in 2026 if enhanced Obamacare subsidies aren't extended when they expire at the end of next year, Bloomberg Intelligence estimates.
Harris and congressional Democrats strongly support extending the subsidies. It would not be a priority for Trump and Republicans, who have vowed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, said Larry Levitt, an executive vice president at KFF, a nonprofit health policy research group.
Losing the subsidies would be "money out of the pockets of insurers and hospitals," he said.
The subsidies help millions of Americans pay for health insurance. The Congressional Budget Office projects that Obamacare enrollment could drop by 3.8 million people in one year if the enhanced subsidies aren't extended.
Yet greater Republican influence would likely reduce pressure on the pharmaceutical industry to negotiate down prices Medicare pays for prescription drugs, Levitt said.
Electric Vehicles
Electric-vehicle makers including Tesla and Rivian and established carmakers like General Motors that have made big investments in the technology have a lot riding on the presidential contest.
Tax incentives for consumer EV purchases and auto emissions standards encouraging production of more low-pollution vehicles are both at risk.
A Harris win means federal tax credits of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles and $4,000 for used vehicles probably stand, while under Trump they could be scrapped or scaled back through more stringent "Buy American" restrictions, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Trump has made his goal clear: he promises to end Biden policies favoring EVs "on day one."
