10 of John Buckingham's Favorite Overlooked Stocks

Q&A October 15, 2024 at 04:45 PM
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John Buckingham (Photo: Andrew Collins)

Quality stocks that are bruised, battered and marked down are what smart value investors crave. And John Buckingham, the Kovitz wealth management principal and portfolio manager, can be found first in line making selections.

"The way I operate is to put money into things that haven't had a massive run-up," Buckingham says in an interview with ThinkAdvisor. "I'd rather buy things that haven't had their day in the sun."

In the interview, the value manager presented 10 of his current top stock picks, most of them household names across nearly as many sectors, including technology, health, energy and transportation.

Buckingham, editor of the Prudent Speculator newsletter, believes in broad diversification. All 10 stocks discussed are trading at valuations that offer a significant discount to the long-term three- to five-year target prices he had set. Dividend income is important and factored in.

Returns for the Al Frank Fund (VALAX) since its 1998 inception, when Buckingham began managing it, through Oct. 11 are 10.38% per year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Russell 3000 Value Index scored 8.88% and 7.5%, respectively.

Buckingham, who oversees $900 million of Kovitz's total $7.5 billion in assets under management and advisement, holds that no matter the direction of interest rates, "more than nine decades of return figures show that stocks, in general, have performed admirably, on average, with value stocks leading the charge."

Here, in alphabetical order, are 10 of his top picks and what he has to say about them:

Alphabet (GOOG): Alphabet controls many subsidiaries, including Google, YouTube and Android. Their balance sheet has never been in such good shape as it is today in terms of cash. They've even started paying a dividend.

The U.S. government is looking into potential monopolistic practices in the search engine and advertising businesses. A long road [of litigation] remains ahead.

But we continue to think the business has tremendous growth potential whether independent or broken up. 

Google is [priced] higher than what a typical value-oriented investor might be looking at, but this is a quality company that historically trades for a much higher multiple of forward earnings. 

Comcast (CMCSA): Comcast Cable is one of the country's largest video, high-speed internet and phone providers to residential customers. NBCUniversal operates news, entertainment and sports cable networks, as well as Universal Parks & Resorts. 

Comcast has had trouble lately keeping broadband and TV subscribers from canceling their services. Peacock, its streaming service, continues to grow but that doesn't yet offset headwinds experienced in other parts of the business. 

Therefore, the top line isn't growing as fast as some might like. There are lots of expenses building out a streaming business. 

But I like stocks that are still likely to grow, and Comcast is paying a nice dividend of 3%.

EOG Resources (EOG): This is a low-cost energy producer that rewards shareholders with very generous dividends, and also does special dividends. There's going to be tremendous demand for energy over time. 

We like that EOG prefers a lean operation, and it has a strong balance sheet with net cash. Management has repurchased about 3% of outstanding shares since implementing its current buyback authorization. 

We also like that the company hasn't been caught up in irrational growth or M&A.

HP Enterprise (HPE): A Hewlett Packard spin-off since 2015, it offers enterprise security, analytics and data management services. The stock has a very low P-E ratio, around 10, and we get a 2.5% yield. 

We think there's still growth potential in terms of the bottom line.

CEO Antonio Neri said last month: "When you talk about the next generation of architectures, I do believe the networking component is going to be a core tenet."

Healthpeak Properties (DOC): More than half of this REIT's annual rents come from tenants involved in various aspects of the life sciences; for example, biotechnology, medical devices, pharmaceuticals.

Even as DOC has rebounded markedly from the REIT turmoil owing to higher interest rates, shares remain a third below where they were a few years ago.

We think that demographics and health care are favorable over the long haul. So health care is a growth area we like to invest in.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): In the businesses of pharma and medical devices, the diversified company has a super-high-quality triple-A credit rating, a 3% dividend yield and a terrific balance sheet.

It's taken a meaningful step toward final resolution of the multi-year litigation — which will cost $13.7 billion payable over 25 years — concerning the pending talc lawsuits against the company and its affiliates in the U.S.

The MedTech segment is expected to grow revenue north of 6% in each of the next few years. We think the litigation will eventually play out, and that certainly could be a catalyst for the stock to come back.

The multi-year consolidation in shares offers a great entry point for investors to pick up a defensive, long-term growth opportunity at a reasonable P-E.

Molson Coors (TAP): An amalgamation of three brewing companies, Molson, Coors and Miller, the company offers brands across the value spectrum.

Competition amongst brewers has been fierce owing to significant growth of independent players dedicated to craft brewing. But that growth has stalled in recent years; thus, we expect companies with scale to benefit. 

The stock is inexpensive, trading for less than 10 times earnings per share projected in each of the next few years, though management is faced with deleveraging the company. 

[People] are not likely to stop drinking beer. TAP has consumer loyalty to Miller and Coors brands. 

Prudential Financial (PRU): The largest U.S. life insurer has more than $1 trillion of assets under management and additional operations in Asia, Europe and Latin America. 

Operating income grew by 10% in fiscal Q2 on strong product sales and constructive interest rates. 

CEO Chuck Lowrey has suggested that the historic levels of Americans who will turn 65 and many additional people in the red zone for retirement — represent a $137 trillion retirement opportunity in the U.S. and $26 trillion in Japan by 2050.

While interest rates have retreated, we expect there are still benefits from bond reinvestment given where rates were in the years following the (global) financial crisis. PRU yields 4.3%.

United Parcel Service (UPS): We just bought UPS a couple of weeks ago. Shares have tumbled this year as volume and cost headwinds took their toll. The whole package-delivery [segment] has gone through booms and busts. 

CEO Carol Tome noted, "Our second-quarter performance was a significant turning point for our company, as we returned to volume growth in the U.S., the first time in nine quarters."

UPS is trading at levels not seen since late 2020 and has attractive valuation metrics. The dividend yield is 4.9%.

E-commerce will be part of the overall retail equation long-term. 

Whirlpool (WHR): Shares of the top major appliance manufacturer in the world remain unloved, falling more than 15% over the last year.

But now there's the likelihood of lower interest and mortgage rates, and [many] first-time home owners. 

CEO Marc Bitzer said, "Our solid Q2 results and actions put us firmly on-track towards expanding our margins sequentially throughout 2024, setting up our business well for the eventual recovery of the housing market." 

We think Whirlpool will also benefit as emerging markets incorporate modern conveniences into daily living. 

We also like that the firm is on course to deliver cost savings of $300 million to $400 million in 2024. And the dividend yield is a whopping 6.8%.

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