Stop Your Clients From Letting Election Fears Drive Investment Decisions

Q&A September 27, 2024 at 04:01 PM
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Spuds Powell

Given the charged nature of the election cycle, voters' anxieties could be at an all-time high.

For investors, that can mean making emotionally driven decisions that they'll live to regret. Spuds Powell, a managing director at Kayne Anderson Rudnick, says that now is the time for advisors to soothe clients' nerves and hand them a reality check.

"Part of my goal is to serve as a financial psychologist to prevent clients from making fear-driven decisions," Powell tells ThinkAdvisor in an interview.

Powell, a 30-year industry veteran who's been a regular on Barron's Top 100 independent financial advisors list, gives worried clients the facts. For example, whoever is elected president has much less influence on companies and the economy than people fear.

What has more influence, he maintains, are interest rates, inflation and consumer spending.

In the interview, Powell notes that a little empathy can go a long way to making clients receptive to absorbing information and being open-minded.

Here are excerpts from our conversation:

THINKADVISOR: Are investors' emotions running unusually high because of the tumultuous election cycle? 

SPUDS POWELL: Yes. There are at least a couple of obvious reasons why emotions have to be quite a bit higher before elections [anyway]. And now we're living in a time when there's more divisiveness and animosity than ever before.

But it's been proven pretty consistently that when it comes to elections, if you let fear, or greed, influence your investing judgment, you usually end up regretting it. 

On TV, we saw presidential candidate Donald Trump bleed after a bullet grazed him in an assassination attempt. Recently a suspect was allegedly preparing to fire at him while he was playing golf. How are such events affecting investors?

They feed into the heightened level of political emotions existing today. But the question investors need to ask themselves is: How are these [events] going to influence Nvidia, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble — or any company?

Will the outcome of the election have a meaningful positive or negative impact on companies that sell products and services? 

I would argue that in most instances it will have quite a bit less influence on businesses, most industries or even the broader economy than people fear. That's based upon what has happened historically.

How likely are investors making decisions according to which candidate wins a debate or what polls are showing?

People have very strong emotional feelings about their political parties and their confidence level for different candidates winning based upon a debate or for any other reason. 

Then they start to let some of those strong political emotions influence their assumptions and predictions in bad ways.

What are you as a financial advisor focused on concerning your clients and the election?

Part of my goal is to serve as a financial psychologist to prevent clients from making fear-driven decisions they'll end up regretting.

What are some behavioral finance tacks that advisors can take with worried clients?

The most important element is earning the client's trust and confidence. Then an advisor needs to provide facts and [hard] information [to counter] the emotionally driven tendencies they have.

For example, the average return for the S&P 500 Index during presidential election years is higher than the long-term average return for the S&P.

So providing facts that may contradict or paint a different picture from what investors have assumed is one way to help.

Should advisors recommend that nervous clients refrain from constantly watching TV news? Many newscasters have a delivery that stirs up viewers' emotions.

Absolutely. Today, everybody has access to the news 24/7. The media knows that fear sells and is very good at feeding investors' fears, insecurities and anxieties.

So it's important that they take what they hear with a [large] grain of salt.

The emotional reaction we have to scary news is much stronger than the one we have to positive news. But the world isn't as dire as the media would imply.

What other behavioral finance strategies can advisors use? 

When it's something as important as the outcome of an election, people tend to dwell much more on what can go wrong than what can go right.

So it's important to consider the range of things that can happen and not focus on the glass being half-empty — the bad scenario that could unfold. 

This tends to ramp up their fear, and often people make the mistake of letting that fear influence their investment decision-making. 

What else should advisors tell clients to avoid their making wrong decisions?

It's a mistake to let your fear influence your judgment. There are many factors that influence the behavior of the stock market and economy.

Certainly politicians are on that list. But it's been proven [fairly] consistently that politicians tend to have a lot less influence on the economy and stock market than other factors do.

Such as?

The health of the job market, whether interest rates are going up or down, inflation going up or down, whether consumer spending is healthy or not, the Fed is increasing or lowering the fed funds rate.

These factors tend to influence the stock market, and more broadly, the economy than the outcome of an election. 

What else should investors think about that would assuage their angst?

I've never seen a really great company become a really lousy company overnight based upon the outcome of an election. The opposite is also true: I've never seen a really lousy business turn into a really great business based upon who our next president is.

Thus, it's important for investors to consider that businesses should be able to continue to be successful regardless of the outcome of the election.

Is there much value in an advisor's showing empathy toward clients who are anxiety-ridden because of the election?

Having empathy is really significant. At times like these, effective communication is critically important, and one of the characteristics of effective communication is being empathetic. 

You need to meet people where they are by putting yourself in their shoes and trying to understand why they feel the way they do.

If you don't, it's really difficult to help them let their guard down and win them over to be receptive to facts and information that would [prevent them] from making emotionally driven decisions.

How does an advisor show empathy?

When it's clear that a client of mine has very strong feelings and maybe even fears about the election and the impact it might have on their investments or even on the economy or the country, it's important to acknowledge those fears and [discuss] aspects of their concerns that I personally agree with to earn their trust and confidence.

That puts them in "receive mode" and being receptive to digesting facts and information I share with them and being open-minded. 

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