Moving Beyond Life Expectancy Rules of Thumb

Commentary July 25, 2024 at 11:07 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • Longevity is key to managing retirement savings.
  • Some clients can expect to live longer than others.
  • Averages for the general population may be a poor fit for your client.
Credit: Harris and Ewing Collection/Library of Congress.

Advisors and financial professionals develop retirement plans based on their clients' best interests and circumstances.

There's a growing awareness that the use of generic retirement planning rules of thumb is no longer consistent with retirement planning best practices.

Moshe Milevsky wrote recently that the continued public interest in the 4% rule, which continues to dominate decumulation discussions, was tiresome. As reported in Think Advisor, Milevsky states, "The (scholarly) world of financial practice has moved on to much more comprehensive and rigorous approaches."

In our recent HealthView Services white paper on whether the industry should be following another rule of thumb, "planning to age 95″, we showed the vast majority of retirees will simply not live that long. In the paper, we make the case that individualized health-based actuarial longevity should be a starting point for retirement plans.

Using individually customized approaches to withdrawals and longevity is crucial. One data point brings this into stark relief. Retirees who entered retirement with $500,000 or more only spent down around 12% of their portfolios within 20 years, or by the time they passed away.

Other research studies show low numbers of retirees making systematic withdrawals from portfolios or making none at all. Although some retirees are more conservative with their spending with the intention of leaving a legacy, we need to recognize that many retirees are underspending in retirement and have the potential for a better quality of life.

The continued use of industry rules of thumb reflects their attractive simplicity when it comes to retirement planning and communicating how much clients need to save and the income portfolios will generate.

Optimizing portfolios and withdrawals for individual clients through retirement is key to balancing the broad range of variables at play to deliver the best outcomes for clients — whether the freedom to spend more, allocate additional funds for legacy purposes, or address other needs.

But unless advisors use the best available data for the most significant factor determining savings and withdrawals during decumulation — longevity — clients will continue to leave money on the table.

The two main drivers of projected longevity at an individual level are health condition and sex at birth. A male client who has achieved an 80% internal rate of return based on living to age 95 but is then diagnosed with diabetes at 65 has the potential for an additional $700,000 to spend in retirement, leave to heirs, or use for other goals including planning for longevity risk, if he plans around on his actuarial longevity of 79.

A 65-year-old woman with high cholesterol can expect to live to 89. Her same-sex spouse with a body mass index of greater than 40 will, on average, live to 82.

In both cases, the probability of reaching age 95 is low. Even if they build in a three-year buffer to account for longevity risk, using health-based longevity as a starting point for planning will provide the ability to spend more in retirement or allocate funds to address other goals.

Here are five key takeaways for advisors:

1. Leveraging new portfolio management and decumulation technologies that dynamically take into account the complex variables impacting withdrawals for individual clients provides the ability to move beyond the 4% rule.

2. Building in health-based longevity expectations for individual clients is the single most significant factor in determining both savings goals and potential income in retirement.

3. The low probability of living to 95 does not mean no probability. Using actuarial data provides a credible basis for conversations about longevity risk and the implementation of strategies that balance the goals of the highest possible quality of life in retirement and making sure funds are available if life is longer than expected.

4. Using realistic life expectancy provides advisors with the opportunity to discuss Social Security strategies, asset management, and insurance products to address longevity risk.

5. Since markets, portfolio performance, and health conditions will change over time, annual reviews of portfolios should also include a discussion of health and its impact on potential longevity.

Meeting clients' best interests requires the development of retirement plans, the selection of products, and implementation of withdrawal strategies that reflect clients' individual needs based on the best available tools and data. This means moving beyond rules of thumb.

Credit: Harris and Ewing Collection/Library of Congress.


Ron Mastrogiovanni (Photo: HealthView)Ron Mastrogiovanni is the chief executive officer of HealthView Services, a provider of retirement, health care, Social Security, long-term care applications, retirement planning and decumulation tools for the financial services industry.

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