Social Security COLA Estimate for 2025 Drops to 2.7% on Cooler Inflation Data

June Inflation Highlights

As reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers — a broader measure of inflation than the CPI-W — declined 0.1% in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, after holding flat in May.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0% before seasonal adjustment, down from the 3.3% trailing 12-month figure published in May. The index for gasoline fell 3.8% in June, after declining 3.6% in May. This more than offset an increase in shelter.

The energy index fell 2.0% over the month, as it did the preceding month, while the index for food increased 0.2% in June. The food away from home index rose faster, at 0.4%, while the food at home index increased 0.1%. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1% in June, after rising 0.2% the preceding month.

Indexes that increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, medical care and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and communication were among those that decreased over the month.

Credit: David Palmer/ALM