Life Insurers Have $234B in Exposure to Apartments

News July 11, 2024 at 12:18 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • Commercial real estate makes up some of the investment portfolios behind life and annuity policies.
  • Multifamily housing now accounts for the biggest share of commercial real estate exposure at those companies.
  • Apartment building owners face some of the same refinancing problems office building owners face.
Wooden houses

U.S. life and annuity issuers have reacted to worries about office building occupancy rates by shifting assets into apartment buildings and other forms of multifamily housing.

The result is that multifamily housing accounts for the biggest share of the insurers' exposure to commercial real estate.

The insurers issuers had about $234 billion of their $5.1 trillion in cash and invested assets, or 4.4% of the total, invested in multifamily housing, mortgage loans issued to multifamily housing owners and other assets related to multifamily housing, according to a Moody's Ratings analysis based on S&P Global Market Intelligence data.

That compares with about $180 billion in assets, or 3.4% of their assets, invested in assets related to office buildings.

What it means: Part of the filling in your clients' life and annuity burritos is made up of investments in real estate. Any big problems with the real estate investments could give the burritos an off taste.

Worries about office building investments are now getting most of the attention and are the focus of the Moody's report. But life and annuity issuers now have more exposure to apartment buildings.

Any big, long-lasting market shifts that hurt apartment building prices, such as new restrictions on home-sharing or new restrictions on real estate investment trusts' ability to invest in residential real estate, could cause problems for life and annuity issuers.

The office nightmare: The COVID-19 pandemic caused many companies to have employees work from home for at least part of the week. Remote work arrangements have persisted at many employers even though memories of the pandemic are fading.

Lower occupancy rates have cut the resale prices of some buildings in cities like Chicago by as much as 40% from their peak.

For now, Moody's analysts see problems with office-related investments nearing a bottom but continuing to get somewhat worse. "The weight of work-from-home on occupancy and the large drops in valuation have made refinancing more difficult," the analysts write. "Deterioration in mortgage loan quality continues to lower valuations while increasing loan-to-value ratios, and loan delinquencies."

Commercial real estate owners typically finance properties with relatively short-term loans, based on the assumption that they can easily replace the old loans with new, similar loans. In recent years, a big increase in interest rates has pushed up the cost of refinancing.

Apartment building owners in most markets are benefiting from high occupancy rates, but they're facing the same pressure from rising refinancing costs that office building owners are facing.

In a bad recession, apartment building loan values might be 18% higher than the apartment buildings' resale value. In the office market, loan values might be just 16% more than the building resale values, according to Moody's calculations.

Other views: Arbor Realty Trust analysts see the high number of households as a force supporting strong residential real estate prices.

Ralph Rosenberg of KKR Insights suggests that multifamily housing is facing cyclical problems, rather than the kind of long-lasting, work-from-home-driven challenges facing the office market.

In the multifamily market, "the influx of new supply is likely to taper off after 2025, at which point we are optimistic about rent growth given the structural shortage of housing," he says.

Credit: Andrii Yalanskyi/Adobe Stock

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