Putting Retirement Portfolios to Work to Produce Income

Expert Opinion July 05, 2024 at 04:32 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • The current level of interest rate yields is a leading indicator of retirees' spending equation.
  • Proper diversification is a key tool to counteract the impact of inflation.
  • Annuities' guaranteed payment can help negate the longevity risk that retirees face.
Christine Benz

With over 10,000 people turning 65 each day in the United States, generating a dependable retirement income stream is a top priority for financial advisors and their clients. At the recent Morningstar Investment Conference, held for the first time at Chicago's Navy Pier, one of the sessions was a panel discussion on retirement savings needs and income strategies.

The conversation was moderated by Jason Kephart, director of multi-asset ratings for Morningstar Research Services. Panelists included Christine Benz, director of personal finance and retirement planning for Morningstar; Erin Browne, managing director and portfolio manager for PIMCO; and Andrew Jacobs van Merlen, portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price.

The panelists discussed a number of things that retirees and their financial advisors need to consider in building a portfolio that has a chance to last for the length of their retirement. Here are some highlights and key points from the session. 

Magic Number for Retirement

Kephart's first topic centered on whether there is a magic number needed for retirement and how people should think about that part of the equation.

For Benz, that is not a back-of-the-envelope calculation. Rather, she advocates that investors and advisors get granular about their retirement income needs. For example, she cited situations in which retirees might be planning a major family trip in year three of their retirement or anticipating the replacement of their roof in year five.

PIMCO's research has found, Browne added, that the current level of interest rate yields is the best indicator of retirees' needs for retirement. In terms of numbers, 6% based on today's yields is closer to what retirees can spend in their retirement than the traditional 4% rule, she said, noting that there is about a 96% correlation between retirees' starting yield and what they can expect to earn from the fixed income portion of their portfolio over the next 25 years.

Target Date Funds and Inflation

During retirement decumulation, Benz noted, investors holding target date funds are forced to take a pro rata share of equities and fixed income when they sell. There are many market environments where investors would prefer to be able to pick and choose the amount of equity or fixed income they are selling. 

Target date funds don't do well in providing those nearing retirement with inflation protection, Browne said. Aside from a sharp market correction when approaching retirement, she believes that inflation is the greatest risk to those nearing retirement and that plan sponsors need to evaluate the level of inflation protection that target date funds offer for those nearing retirement. 

For Jacobs van Merlen, short Treasury inflation-protected securities can help mitigate the effect of inflation on the bond portion. He added that duration can be obtained in other ways. 

The asset side of the equation is key for these retirees, according to Jacobs van Merlen. Liabilities in terms of future purchasing-power needs are going up while assets are going down through their withdrawing money to fund retirement, with proper diversification a key tool to counteract the impact of inflation.

Fixed Income Quality

Browne offered that this might be the best time in decades for high-quality fixed income. Investors should look at such holdings as municipal bonds, agency debt or high-quality corporates. 

She noted that investors don't have to go far out on the credit spectrum to secure some very solid yields. 

Credit and Diversification

Kephart said that one issue making him and his colleagues on the Morningstar manager research team nervous was loading up on credit risk at the expense of diversification in target and other types of balanced funds. 

Jacobs van Merlen said that many U.S. investors are under-invested on a global basis. Agreeing, Browne said that this is also a time for investors to start moving out of cash and investing in more intermediate-duration fixed income. It is incumbent upon investors and plan sponsors to position assets in anticipation of when the Federal Reserve begins to cut rates, she added.

From Benz's perspective, research at Morningstar has pointed to a significant allocation to high-quality fixed income to sustain a stable rate of income in retirement. 

Place for Equities

Investors should have a significant portion, perhaps up to 40%, of their retirement portfolio allocated to equities, Browne offered, to help ensure a proper level of balance between growth and income. In today's interest rate environment, she said, investors want a sizable allocation to stable income-producing assets. 

Jacobs van Merlen indicated that equities still have a significant role in retirement portfolios, particularly for those investors who may not have saved enough to ensure that they don't run out of money in retirement. While dividend stocks can have a place in the portfolios of some retirees who have accumulated a sufficient amount for retirement, growth-oriented equities may be appropriate during the early stages of retirement for those with smaller portfolios. 

Role of Annuities

Browne indicated that annuities can play a role for retirees whether in a target date fund or by themselves. One concern she expressed was that there is a level of ambiguity with annuities, and a number of investors and plan sponsors may not understand what they are buying. Another concern is that an annuity locks up retirees' money with little or no excess in exchange for a relatively small payment each month. 

Benz said there is a place both inside and outside of retirement plans for annuities. She likes that the guaranteed payment helps negate the longevity risk that retirees face and also supports the basic simplicity that annuities can provide. On the other hand, she cited the lack of inflation protection as the biggest drawback of annuities in retirement.

Jacobs van Merlen commented that while he likes annuities as a retirement income vehicle, they are not the right choice for investors in all cases. One issue is that if an annuity is made to be part of a target date fund, the amount of the annuity and the monthly income that it throws off could be inconsequential for some investors.

Investors and Their Asset Allocation

In response to an audience question, Browne indicated that investors should be more allocated to growth assets at the beginning of retirement. As they move into retirement, she added, they should consider moving a greater percentage of their portfolio into fixed income investments that provide a decent amount of income in retirement. 

Benz noted that the bucket approach she often recommends for retirees includes a bucket with low-risk spendable income that protects against a lost-decade scenario in the event of a severe market downturn. Even if an advisor is not using the bucket approach, she added, the strategy is still a good way to illustrate the need for a defensive portion of a retirement portfolio.

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