Ethereum ETFs' Last-Minute Approval Reveals a Massive Shift

Expert Opinion June 14, 2024 at 03:49 PM
Share & Print

What You Need To Know

  • The SEC approved the funds in late May, but investors can't buy them yet.
  • The industry is banking on Republicans winning the White House or gaining control of Congress.
  • Federal regulations prohibit banks from providing custody services for crypto, but a massive lobbying effort is at hand.
Ric Edelman, founder of Edelman Financial Engines

Yay.

The Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot ethereum exchange-traded funds on May 23, so, yeah. Yay. But the way this approval happened is astonishing, portending big implications for crypto come the November elections.

Quick background: Ethereum was invented in 2015 and is known as "programmable money" or "smart contracts" — meaning you can control the timing and conditions of your transmittals. You can't do that with bitcoin, and this feature explains why ethereum is now the second-largest digital asset by market capitalization.

Nowadays, bitcoin is popular mostly for its function as a store of value, while ethereum is valued primarily for its commercial applications. Indeed, many of the world's biggest brands, including Nike, Google, PayPal, UBS, BlackRock, Tiffany's, Breitling and Burberry, are building projects on the ethereum blockchain. It is also the primary platform for stablecoins and decentralized finance, each worth more than $150 billion.

This enthusiasm underpins the excitement over the new spot ethereum ETFs. In fact, Standard Chartered predicts that up to $45 billion will flow into these ETFs within the first 12 months.

But there's a catch: You can't buy them yet, because the SEC has bungled the process. The agency had a statutory deadline to approve or reject the first of the ethereum applications, Van Eck's, by May 23.

Everyone monitoring the situation was pretty sure that the SEC was going to reject all the applications — with the best evidence being that there had been virtually no communication between the SEC and the eight ETF providers that had filed applications. (Typically, when an application is under consideration, there's substantial engagement between SEC staff and the fund company.)

Then, just 72 hours before the May 23 deadline, the SEC initiated intense engagement with all the ETF sponsors, not just Van Eck, including requests for urgent amendments to their applications. This sudden activity was quite a surprise and indicated that approval was imminent. Overnight, Bloomberg went from 25% likelihood of approval to 75%.

Indeed, approval came on the Thursday evening before the start of the Memorial Day weekend, the lack of notice leaving the crypto and financial services communities unprepared. And, in the end, the SEC's last-minute dash left work unfinished; Although all the 19b-4 forms were completed and approved, none of the applicants' S-1 forms were.

Consequently, the ETFs have not yet entered the marketplace. People I've talked to couldn't recall the last time an ETF approved by the SEC wasn't able to start trading immediately. The sponsors of these ETFs say it could be months before trading starts.

Why did the SEC wait so long to work on the ethereum ETFs?

The answer speaks volumes about a massive political shift on Capitol Hill — with massive implications for the future of crypto.

If Republicans win the White House or gain control of both houses of Congress, the crypto industry will enjoy explosive growth in the United States. But if President Joe Biden remains in the White House, or Democrats control Congress, the crypto industry might well abandon the United States in favor of countries that are more welcoming — including Japan, South Korea, France and the United Kingdom.

The Democratic Party's disdain for crypto is well known. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's conduct regarding crypto has been criticized not only by many members of Congress but by virtually every prior SEC commissioner.

Gensler's opposition reflects that of most Democrats, including Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has sponsored several bills to curtail or ban digital assets, and Biden, who not only appointed Gensler to his role at the SEC but most recently has asked Congress to approve a 30% bitcoin mining excise tax. If passed, the tax would eliminate mining in the United States, moving innovation overseas and costing tens of thousands of high-paying, green jobs in 41 states.

The crypto community has grown tired of its treatment in Washington. So, the industry has formed several political action committees and funded them with nearly $250 million, making them the largest financial influencers of the 2024 elections. Their primary targets: Democrats who oppose crypto legislation and regulation. One was Rep. Katie Porter, and she lost her primary race for the Senate.

In her concession speech, she said her loss was "rigged" by "billionaires spending millions" to alter the outcome. (Porter later said she regretted her comment.)

The crypto community and investment management industry are unhappy that no crypto laws or regulations have been approved. It took an appeals court to force Gensler to approve the bitcoin ETFs, and their debut proved that there's massive investor interest in this asset class: They've become the fastest-growing ETF category in history, accumulating $60 billion in assets in less than five months — including more than $5 billion from institutional investors so far.

The crypto community is thrilled. The ETF industry is ecstatic. And the investment advisory field is smiling, too, getting to share in the assets under management and the resulting fees. But one group is very unhappy: the banks.

Thanks to Gensler and Congress, banks are prohibited from providing custody services for crypto.

Meanwhile, Coinbase has $350 billion in assets. So, it's no surprise that the American Bankers Association is working to change that. Its website states, "ABA is working to help banks safely meet customer demand for digital assets." That's code for: We're lobbying Congress, so we can play, too.

Given all this, it's not a stretch to imagine that both Wall Street firms and America's bankers have expressed their views to Sen. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic majority leader who also happens to represent New York. It's also not a stretch to imagine that Schumer has talked with Biden.

My evidence? Not only did Gensler engage in a sudden and unexpected 180-degree shift to approve the ethereum ETFs, but 71 Democrats in the House just voted to approve the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act. Never before have so many Democrats supported major crypto legislation.

That legislation's prospects are uncertain; given the congressional calendar, it's unlikely that the Senate will act this year, and rumors are that Biden would veto the bill anyway. Indeed, some report that his veto promise allowed Democrats to support the bill, protecting them from the crypto PACs while knowing that the bill won't actually become law.

Meanwhile, presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has been advocating strong support for crypto, going so far as to accept campaign contributions in bitcoin, ethereum and several other digital assets. At a recent rally, he said, "I will also stop Joe Biden's crusade to crush crypto. I will ensure that the future of crypto and the future of bitcoin will be made in the USA, not driven overseas. I will support the right to self-custody to the nation's 50 million crypto holders. I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your bitcoin."

Bottom line: Crypto has become a campaign issue, and single-issue voters who are focused on  crypto pose a threat to Democrats seeking office or reelection.


Ric Edelman is an author and founder of the RIA Edelman Financial Engines (earlier Edelman Financial Services). He now leads the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals.

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Related Stories

Resource Center