Yay.
The Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot ethereum exchange-traded funds on May 23, so, yeah. Yay. But the way this approval happened is astonishing, portending big implications for crypto come the November elections.
Quick background: Ethereum was invented in 2015 and is known as "programmable money" or "smart contracts" — meaning you can control the timing and conditions of your transmittals. You can't do that with bitcoin, and this feature explains why ethereum is now the second-largest digital asset by market capitalization.
Nowadays, bitcoin is popular mostly for its function as a store of value, while ethereum is valued primarily for its commercial applications. Indeed, many of the world's biggest brands, including Nike, Google, PayPal, UBS, BlackRock, Tiffany's, Breitling and Burberry, are building projects on the ethereum blockchain. It is also the primary platform for stablecoins and decentralized finance, each worth more than $150 billion.
This enthusiasm underpins the excitement over the new spot ethereum ETFs. In fact, Standard Chartered predicts that up to $45 billion will flow into these ETFs within the first 12 months.
But there's a catch: You can't buy them yet, because the SEC has bungled the process. The agency had a statutory deadline to approve or reject the first of the ethereum applications, Van Eck's, by May 23.
Everyone monitoring the situation was pretty sure that the SEC was going to reject all the applications — with the best evidence being that there had been virtually no communication between the SEC and the eight ETF providers that had filed applications. (Typically, when an application is under consideration, there's substantial engagement between SEC staff and the fund company.)
Then, just 72 hours before the May 23 deadline, the SEC initiated intense engagement with all the ETF sponsors, not just Van Eck, including requests for urgent amendments to their applications. This sudden activity was quite a surprise and indicated that approval was imminent. Overnight, Bloomberg went from 25% likelihood of approval to 75%.
Indeed, approval came on the Thursday evening before the start of the Memorial Day weekend, the lack of notice leaving the crypto and financial services communities unprepared. And, in the end, the SEC's last-minute dash left work unfinished; Although all the 19b-4 forms were completed and approved, none of the applicants' S-1 forms were.
Consequently, the ETFs have not yet entered the marketplace. People I've talked to couldn't recall the last time an ETF approved by the SEC wasn't able to start trading immediately. The sponsors of these ETFs say it could be months before trading starts.
Why did the SEC wait so long to work on the ethereum ETFs?
The answer speaks volumes about a massive political shift on Capitol Hill — with massive implications for the future of crypto.
If Republicans win the White House or gain control of both houses of Congress, the crypto industry will enjoy explosive growth in the United States. But if President Joe Biden remains in the White House, or Democrats control Congress, the crypto industry might well abandon the United States in favor of countries that are more welcoming — including Japan, South Korea, France and the United Kingdom.