The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, for 2025 is likely to land between 2.66% and 3.2%, based on the latest consumer price index data, released Wednesday.
The 2024 cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security beneficiaries was 3.2%.
The April Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) rose 3.4% from 12 months ago. That's slightly lower than the inflation trends indicated last month based on March inflation data. As a result, the 2025 COLA projection range has increased only marginally over the last month, according to separate estimates provided by the Senior Citizens League and the Social Security expert Mary Johnson.
Both sources caution that the final COLA for 2025 is likely to be different from their current estimates. This is because the COLA is calculated on the average rate of inflation during the third quarter, which is then compared against the third quarter a year ago.
In the league's 2024 Senior Survey, 73% of respondents said their household costs rose by more than 3.2% in 2023; in addition, 38% are worried that their 2024 COLA will fall short of inflation experienced this year.
April Inflation Highlights
As reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers — a broader measure of inflation than the CPI-W — increased 0.3% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in March. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.
