Two-Thirds of Peak Boomers Aren't Ready for Retirement: Study

News April 24, 2024 at 02:36 PM
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What You Need To Know

  • Fifty-three percent of respondents nearing age 65 have assets of $250,000 or less, according to a study commissioned by the ALI Retirement Income Institute.
  • There are sharp differences in savings based on gender, race and ethnicity, and education.
  • Projected mortality will offset 61% of Social Security's additional costs and 58% of Medicare's, the study found.
Glass jars with money for different needs

Two-thirds of Americans who will turn 65 between 2024 and 2030 are not financially prepared for retirement and are at risk of outliving their savings. This is the stark finding in a study by Robert Shapiro, the former under secretary of Commerce for economic affairs.

Between now and 2030, 30.4 million Americans will turn 65, according to the study, which was commissioned by the ALI Retirement Income Institute. Based on their assets and likelihood of living 20 or more years in retirement, peak boomers will be challenged to maintain their lifestyles in retirement. 

Fifty-three percent have assets of $250,000 or less, making it likely that they will run through their savings and have to rely mainly on Social Security for income. Another 14.6% have assets of $500,000 or less. On average, Social Security benefits are intended to replace about 40% of a person's annual pre-retirement income, according to the Social Security Administration.

"America has never seen so many people reaching retirement age over a short period, and well over half of them will find it challenging to meet their needs through their retirements, let alone maintain their current standard of living," Shapiro said in a statement. "They lack the protected income that many older boomers have from solid pensions or higher savings."

Demographic Differences

Shapiro found sharp differences in retirement savings and security based on gender, race and ethnicity, and education. While the median retirement savings for all peak boomers is $225,000, it breaks down this way by those demographics: 

  • $269,000 for men vs. $185,000 for women
  • $299,000 for whites vs.$123,000 for Hispanics and $49,000 for Blacks
  • $591,000 for college graduates versus $75,000 for high school graduates and $7,000 for those without high school diplomas

A quarter of peak boomers have defined benefit pensions, and among them the demographic disparities are modest. Private employers provide about half of those pensions, and state and local governments provide just under half.  

Shapiro noted, however, that 2022 data showed that the median annual benefit for the public defined benefit pensions is $25,450, or 44% greater than the median benefit of $17,640 for the private ones.

"The saving grace for some peak boomers is that they can count on the added protected income that a pension provides in retirement," Jason Fichtner, executive director of the ALI Retirement Income Institute and chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center, said in the statement. 

"However, since only 4% of all private sector workers had protected income from a pension as recently as 2020, this economic study of peak boomers should be a cautionary tale to all Americans planning for retirement."

Effects on U.S. Economy

Between 2024 and 2030, the U.S. economy will experience a range of outcomes with the retirement of peak boomers, who currently fill 10% of U.S. jobs — from millions of job vacancies and slower productivity gains to added burdens on entitlement programs such as Social Security.

According to Shapiro's study, employers will have to replace between 10.8 million and 14.8 million peak boomer employees, including 1 to 2 million each in manufacturing, construction, health care, education and professional services. 

This drain of experienced workers will directly dampen productivity by 0.9% to 1.3%.

Younger generations will fill positions vacated by peak boomers, partially offsetting these effects, but their retirements will reduce GDP growth by 7.3% by 2030.

Peak boomer consumers will spend 15.3% less in retirement, and the transportation sector will take the biggest hit, according to the study. Utilities, wholesale trade and real estate will also face significant downdrafts.

As peak boomers draw on Medicare and Social Security, their benefits will add $347 billion to entitlement spending by 2030, Shapiro found. However, boomers' projected mortality will offset 61% of Social Security's additional costs and 58% of Medicare's.

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