J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2024 Guide to Retirement was published last week.
For the first time in its decade-plus history, the guide puts a spotlight on the experiences of same-sex couples — in particular, how their longevity experiences can differ from those of male-female couples.
The results are eye-opening, especially when it comes to demonstrating the excess longevity anticipated for female couples who find themselves entering retirement as nonsmokers in excellent health.
As the guide shows, such couples have a whopping 92% chance of at least one member living to age 85, as well as a 78% chance of one member surpassing age 90. Perhaps most notably, more than half (52%) of such couples should anticipate having at least one member live to age 95, and there is nearly a one-in-four chance (24%) of one member living to age 100.
Excess longevity is clearly a "challenge" for nonsmoking same-sex female couples, the guide shows, while same-sex male couples conversely have longevity projections that are skewed in the opposite direction — meaning their wealth may not have to stretch as far in retirement as different-sex couples or female couples.
What's clear is that tailored longevity data is a key planning tool, whether one is taking about same-sex couples or considering retirees with different health statuses. Merely relying on population-level averages, as such, is not the best approach to thinking or talking about longevity in the actual retirement planning process.
During a press event in New York held to introduce the 2024 findings, chief retirement strategist Mike Conrath credited his colleague and fellow strategist Sharon Carson for pushing to include the new, more inclusive look at life expectancy in this year's guide. In addition to emphasizing the utility of the data, the pair agreed that it is important for firms like J.P. Morgan to constantly reconsider and reassess the way they present information in order to stay relevant as the public's expectations and experiences shift.
The Longevity Baseline
Before highlighting the outlook for same-sex couples, the 2024 Guide to Retirement sets a baseline for comparison by presenting population-level data for men and women at age 65 today. It provides both a general population projection as well as a more tailored projection for those who are nonsmokers in excellent health.
Generally speaking, an average woman entering retirement at age 65 has a 52% chance of living to age 85, and this number jumps to 72% for healthy nonsmokers. These figures fall to 30% and 54%, respectively, when looking at the chance of living to age 90. When considering age 95, they fall again to 11% and 31%. Finally, there is a 13% chance of a healthy female nonsmoker making it to age 100.
Men's longevity is markedly lower, on average, both for the total population and for healthy nonsmokers. Generally speaking, an average man entering retirement at age 65 has a 39% chance of living to age 85, and this number climbs to 63% for healthy nonsmokers. These figures fall to 19% and 43%, respectively, when looking at the chance of living to age 90. When considering age 95, they fall again to 5% and 22%. Finally, there is a 8% chance of a healthy male nonsmoker making it to age 100.
Longevity Outlook for Mixed-Sex Couples
When crunching the numbers for mixed-sex married couples, the J.P. Morgan strategists find the chances are 71% that at least one member will live to age 85, and this number increases to 90% for healthy nonsmokers. For age 90, these numbers fall to 43% and 73%, respectively, and they fall again to 15% and 46% when considering age 95. Strikingly, some 19% of healthy nonsmoking couples can anticipate at least one member living to age 100.
As Conrath and Carson emphasized, these numbers show that retirement planning today must account for the very real potential of at least one member of the couple living well beyond 30 years in retirement. In fact, the data also shows that 46% of healthy nonsmoking couples will see both members live to 85, while 23% of such couples will see both members live to 90 and 7% will see both members live to 95.
