Social Security Claiming: The Case of the Age and Earnings Gap

Case Study February 29, 2024 at 03:21 PM
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This is the latest in an ongoing series of biweekly articles featuring Social Security claiming case studies drawn from the ALM publication "2024 Social Security & Medicare Facts," by Michael Thomas with support from Jim Blair, a former Social Security administrator, and Marc Kiner, a planning expert with extensive experience in public accounting.

The Scenario: Married, Different Ages, Different Earnings

Greg and Alice are a married couple. Greg is a high earner and Alice is a middle-income earner, and there is over seven years' difference in their ages. Specifically, Greg was born in 1962 and has an actuarially expected death age of 85, while Alice was born in 1970 and is expected to die past age 87.

According to the general planning wisdom, Greg should consider waiting beyond his full retirement age to take his benefit, as this could meaningfully increase the survivor benefit that is expected to eventually go to Alice. Based on normal life expectancies, Alice will receive widow's benefits sooner and longer than a surviving spouse who was similar in age to their spouse.

If she survives Greg before filing for any benefits, she will need to reconsider her options to include widow's benefits.

What the Numbers Say

Under this set of conditions, both spouses have a full retirement age of 67, at which time Greg's full monthly benefit would be $2,153 and Alice's would be $1,449. According to the authors, there are as many as nine potentially relevant claiming scenarios to consider for Greg and Alice, and the range in outcomes is significant — with more than $200,000 in additional lifetime benefits projected under the optimal claiming approach.

The least effective approach would be for Greg to file for his worker benefit in September 2024 at age 62. This would result in $1,516 per month, or just over 70% of his full amount. Alice would then file at age 67 in January 2037 for her own full worker benefit of $1,449. With Greg's assumed longevity, Alice would go on to collect a survivor benefit of $1,516. For the couple combined, this approach would result in $784,359 of lifetime benefits.

A slightly more effective strategy would be for Greg to file in September 2024 at age 62 for the same reduced benefit of $1,516 and for Alice to also file at age 62 in February 2032, when she would get $1,020 per month. The same survivor benefit would kick in, which would result in $790,056 in lifetime benefits.

A similar jump in the lifetime benefit projection comes if Greg acts similarly but Alice waits until age 70 in January 2040 to claim her maximum benefit of $1,796. This would result in $797,652 in total benefit payments.

A much more sizable benefit increase comes if Greg files at age 67 in August 2029 for his full retirement benefit of $2,153. Alice then waits to claim her maximum benefit at age 70 in January 2040, when she'll get $1,796 per month. Under the assumed longevity conditions, she will then become entitled to a higher survivor benefit of $2,153. This approach delivers almost $90,000 in additional lifetime benefits, for a total of $888,997.

About $20,000 in additional lifetime benefits are possible if Greg acts the same but Alice files in January 2037 at age 67 for her full retirement benefit of $1,449. This would boost the lifetime benefit to $909,584. The tally increases again to $915,281 if Greg likewise files in August 2029 for his full worker benefit but Alice file early at age 62 in 2032, at which time her retirement benefit would be $1,020 and her eventual survivor benefit would be $2,153.

Superior Approaches

According to the ALM authors, three additional claiming strategies are likely to deliver superior outcomes, starting with both Greg and Alice waiting until age 70 to file for their maximum benefits. This would suggest Greg claiming in August 2032 for a benefit of $2,669 (eventually the amount of the expected survivor benefit) and Alice filing in 2040 for a benefit of $1,796. This would give the couple $966,805 in projected lifetime benefits.

A jump of about $20,000 in the total projection comes if Alice files in January 2037 at age 67 for her full worker benefit of $1,449. In this case, she would still expect to collect the "maximum survivor benefit" of $2,669, given that Greg waits to file until age 70. This would result in $987,392 in total benefits.

Finally, the best projected benefit comes from Alice choosing to claim early in February 2032 at age 62 for a reduced benefit of $1,020. Greg, however, waits for age 70 to claim his maximum benefit of $2,669, which would then become the amount of the survivor benefit that Alice expects to collect. This approach, according to the authors, delivers a projected $993,089 in lifetime benefits.

Word of Caution on Longevity

One important caveat to consider when digesting this and other claiming case studies is the importance of the longevity assumptions being fed in. For example, the couple in this scenario has projected longevity of 85 and 87, and both the first and second death in the scenario will have an important impact on the real-world benefits such a couple would receive.

It is also important to consider that the typical financial advisor's clients are going to be wealthier and healthier than the population averages, so it may make sense to plan for lifespans that range into the early 90s. It is especially important to consider the growing likelihood that at least one member of the couple will live to age 92 or beyond. In such cases, delaying claiming to 70 is likely to increase the overall projected total.

Social Security calculators can easily come up with situations in which one member of a couple taking funds before age 70 adds up to more funds overall, but such results tend to come from assuming lower life expectancies. In a world of rapidly advancing longevity among the top income earners, this could be a big mistake for financial advisors and clients.

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