U.S. Office Price Slump May Be Bottoming Out: Fitch Analyst

News February 01, 2024 at 10:19 AM
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Investment firms are starting to respond to the U.S. office building valuation slump by setting up funds that could invest in distressed office building mortgages, according to Robert Vrchota.

Vrchota, a managing director in the commercial mortgage department at Fitch Ratings, talked about the appearance of distressed property funds Wednesday in New York, at a Fitch insurance conference.

The market for the buildings is bleak, with a typical value drop of about 50% for distressed buildings receiving "special servicing" for their mortgage payments, but "appraisers got better comps," he said.

Access to better appraisals is starting to set what looks to investors like the start of a floor for office building prices, and the signs of potential stability are making investors more interested in that market, Vrchota said.

What it means: Life and annuity issuers have mostly been doing well, and their investments have been performing well, but their office building and office-related investments still need to be turned around.

Commercial real estate overview: Many life and annuity issuers invest in commercial real estate, commercial mortgage-backed securities and other real estate-related holdings in addition to high-grade corporate bonds, and attendees at the conference paid close attention as Vrchota talked about the state of the office building market.

He suggested that the submarkets for industrial properties, multifamily housing and retail properties other than shopping malls are having problems but show some signs of stability.

In the office market, a combination of high interest rates, a slowing economy and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic-period shift to remote work on use of office space have hurt the prices of older and poorly located office buildings, Vrchota said.

Vacancy levels are at an all-time high, rents are flat and falling, and prices of big buildings sold in Chicago in recent months have been more than 60% below the same buildings' previous, recent sales prices, Vrchota added.

In the past, Vrchota said, commercial real estate losses related to severe downturns have soared over 10%, from a historical average of about 4% to 5%.

Fitch's modeling for commercial mortgage-backed securities indicates that losses could be below 5% for industrial properties and multifamily housing, 5% for retail excluding malls and 8% for office buildings.

"What inning are we in?" Vrchota asked. "It's hard to say."

In recent decades, the average commercial real estate slump has lasted about 44 months. The current slump has lasted 22 months, Vrchota noted.

Robert Vrchota. Credit: Allison Bell/ALM

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