Americans More Optimistic About Social Security: Gallup

News December 27, 2023 at 01:58 PM
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Half of Americans expect the Social Security system to pay them a benefit when they retire, while 47% do not, according to a recent Gallup poll.

Gallup noted that respondents were more upbeat than those in three surveys conducted between 2005 and 2015, when nonretirees were more likely to predict that they would not receive benefits.

Moreover, 53% of current U.S. retirees said they will continue to receive their full Social Security benefits, up from 37% in 2010 and 49% in 2015. Forty-three percent of retirees currently expect their benefits eventually to be cut.

Greater optimism about the future of Social Security comes at a time when Americans' satisfaction with the Social Security system has also been higher.

Gallup conducted polling in June and July among more than 1,300 nonretirees and some 600 retirees.

Counting on Benefits

The new poll found that expectations for receiving Social Security benefits vary by age among nonretirees, with 66% of those 50 and older expecting to get benefits.

Only 37% of nonretirees between 30 and 49 believe they will get Social Security benefits, while 61% do not. The youngest adults, those aged 18 to 29, are divided: 50% think they will get benefits, and 48% do not.

Compared with 2015 polling results, older and middle-aged nonretirees' expectations about receiving benefits are not meaningfully different now, according to Gallup. However, half the youngest age group predicted that they will receive benefits, up from 34% in 2015 — the most optimistic this cohort has been at any point since 2000, Gallup said.

Politics Modestly Related to Expectations

Sixty percent of Democratic nonretirees in the survey said they expect to receive Social Security benefits when they retire, compared with 50% of Republican and 45% of independent nonretirees.

In addition, 69% of Democratic retirees but only 39% of Republican ones expressed confidence that their benefits will be maintained. A slim majority of retired independents also expected to continue receiving their current benefits.

Party differences on these items have been inconsistent over time, according to Gallup. For example, the party gap in nonretirees' belief that they will get Social Security payments is smaller this year than in 2015, when the difference was 22 percentage points, and larger than it was in 2001 and 2010, when there were essentially no party differences, and about the same as it was in 2000 and 2005. 

When gaps have existed, those who identify with the party of the incumbent president have typically been more positive about the future of Social Security.

Higher Taxes vs. Benefit Cuts

Gallup noted that discussions about preserving Social Security largely center on raising payroll taxes of current workers that fund the system, curbing benefits for current and/or future recipients and possibly raising the age at which retirees can receive full benefits (currently 67 years old). 

The recent poll found that while U.S. adults have typically favored raising Social Security taxes rather than curbing benefits as a means of ensuring the long-term future of the system, they are more likely to favor tax increases now than in the past.

Sixty-one percent of Americans said they would prefer the government raise Social Security taxes, while 31% would rather the government curb Social Security benefits. In surveys conducted in 2005, 2010 and 2015, the margin in favor of increased taxes was smaller than the 30-point gap that emerged in 2023, ranging from 9 to 15 points.

Fifty-nine percent of Democrats and 53% of independents prefer raising taxes to beef up Social Security, while 39% of Republicans agree. Fifty-six percent of Republicans prefer the government curb Social Security benefits for recipients, a view shared by 44% of independents and just 27% of Democrats.

Democrats today are likelier than in the past to favor increased taxes, while Republicans are now more likely to favor curbing benefits.

The poll found that nonretirees are more inclined to believe that a 401(k) plan will be a major source of income in their retirement than to say this about Social Security. For retirees, however, Social Security is the clear leader over other retirement funding sources, underscoring the importance of the system to U.S. seniors.

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