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Fall COVID-19 Surge Continues

News December 22, 2023 at 03:55 PM
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Early death tracking figures from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that the recent surge in COVID-19 cases is continuing to increase overall U.S. mortality.

COVID-19, pneumonia and influenza caused at least 2,093, or 8.6%, of the 24,056 deaths included in the very earliest, incomplete death count data for the week ending Dec. 16.

COVID-19 alone caused about 3% of the deaths, up from 1% during the week ending July 1, when the disease seemed to be fading away, and up from 2.9% during the week ending Dec. 3.

The earliest reasonably complete death numbers are for the week ending Dec. 2. They show that the United States as a whole reported 51,863 deaths for that. That's 9.8% lower than the number recorded for the comparable week in 2022 but 8.4% higher than the number recorded for the comparable week in 2019, before COVID-19 came to light.

What it means: Any retirement or estate planning forecasters who built significant mortality improvement into 2023 projections may have to recalibrate.

The context: The total number of U.S. deaths from all causes for the period running from Jan. 1, 2023, through Dec. 2, 2023, was 2.8 million.

That was down 5.9% from the total for the comparable period in 2022 but up 8.3% for the comparable period in 2019.

For the four-week period from Nov. 5 through Dec. 2, the death count has been 9.6% higher than in the comparable period in 2019.

The total CDC death counts include deaths from accidents, suicides, heart disease, the effects of COVID-19 on the health care system, any mortality related to vaccines or other efforts to prevent and treat COVID-19, and many other factors in addition COVID-19, influenza and pneumonia.

The CDC collects the data because changes in the ratio of the number of deaths caused by upper respiratory infections to the number of all deaths may be a sign that a disease outbreak is causing significant problems.

Hospital death reports: A dwindling number of hospitals continue to report COVID-19 death data and other data to a separate COVID-19 tracking program operated by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Hospitals reported 578 COVID-19 deaths for the week ending Dec. 10.

That was up from a total of 546 for the previous week and up from 383 for the week ending July 1.

For a look at COVID-19 death count figures for the weeks ending July 1, Dec. 3 and Dec. 10, see the table below.

The change column figures represent changes in death counts, rather than percentage changes.

The counts increased by at least 10 between the week ending Dec. 3 and the latest week in California, Illinois, Michigan and North Carolina.

COVID-19 deaths reported by hospitals for the week ending… Change in death count since the week ending…
 July 1  Dec. 3  Dec. 10  July 1  Dec. 3
..Alabama.. ..0.. ..4.. ..6.. ..+6.. ..+2..
..Alaska.. ..3.. ..1.. ..1.. ..-2.. ..0..
..Arizona.. ..0.. ..0.. ..1.. ..+1.. ..+1..
..Arkansas.. ..0.. ..5.. ..2.. ..+2.. ..-3..
..California.. ..67.. ..76.. ..91.. ..+24.. ..+15..
..Colorado.. ..0.. ..3.. ..4.. ..+4.. ..+1..
..Connecticut.. ..2.. ..1.. ..0.. ..-2.. ..-1..
..Delaware.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..District.of.Columbia.. ..0.. ..2.. ..0.. ..0.. ..-2..
..Florida.. ..74.. ..82.. ..75.. ..+1.. ..-7..
..Georgia.. ..3.. ..2.. ..3.. ..0.. ..+1..
..Hawaii.. ..0.. ..1.. ..0.. ..0.. ..-1..
..Idaho.. ..2.. ..6.. ..3.. ..+1.. ..-3..
..Illinois.. ..8.. ..12.. ..22.. ..+14.. ..+10..
..Indiana.. ..0.. ..18.. ..20.. ..+20.. ..+2..
..Iowa.. ..2.. ..14.. ..4.. ..+2.. ..-10..
..Kansas.. ..1.. ..5.. ..1.. ..0.. ..-4..
..Kentucky.. ..0.. ..1.. ..1.. ..+1.. ..0..
..Louisiana.. ..0.. ..0.. ..2.. ..+2.. ..+2..
..Maine.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..Maryland.. ..2.. ..11.. ..13.. ..+11.. ..+2..
..Massachusetts.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..Michigan.. ..10.. ..38.. ..51.. ..+41.. ..+13..
..Minnesota.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..Mississippi.. ..1.. ..0.. ..0.. ..-1.. ..0..
..Missouri.. ..3.. ..24.. ..24.. ..+21.. ..0..
..Montana.. ..1.. ..1.. ..5.. ..+4.. ..+4..
..Nebraska.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..Nevada.. ..2.. ..7.. ..2.. ..0.. ..-5..
..New Hampshire.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..New Jersey.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..New Mexico.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..New York.. ..37.. ..56.. ..54.. ..+17.. ..-2..
..North Carolina.. ..68.. ..75.. ..87.. ..+19.. ..+12..
..North Dakota.. ..27.. ..0.. ..0.. ..-27.. ..0..
..Ohio.. ..2.. ..0.. ..4.. ..+2.. ..+4..
..Oklahoma.. ..3.. ..7.. ..9.. ..+6.. ..+2..
..Oregon.. ..6.. ..19.. ..24.. ..+18.. ..+5..
..Pennsylvania.. ..0.. ..0.. ..3.. ..+3.. ..+3..
..Puerto Rico.. ..0.. ..0.. ..1.. ..+1.. ..+1..
..Rhode Island.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..South Carolina.. ..1.. ..15.. ..8.. ..+7.. ..-7..
..South Dakota.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..Tennessee.. ..1.. ..10.. ..10.. ..+9.. ..0..
..Texas.. ..7.. ..14.. ..13.. ..+6.. ..-1..
..Utah.. ..0.. ..0.. ..1.. ..+1.. ..+1..
..Vermont.. ..0.. ..1.. ..1.. ..+1.. ..0..
..Virginia.. ..45.. ..32.. ..28.. ..-17.. ..-4..
..Washington.. ..5.. ..0.. ..0.. ..-5.. ..0..
..West Virginia.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..Wisconsin.. ..0.. ..3.. ..4.. ..+4.. ..+1..
..Wyoming.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0.. ..0..
..TOTAL.. ..383.. ..546.. ..578.. ..+195.. ..+32.

Credit: Adobe Stock

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