Market for These Annuities Looks 'Exceptionally Robust': Equitable

Conversation December 19, 2023 at 05:11 PM
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Robin Raju is helping a company that has been a pillar of the U.S. life insurance industry get its fame back.

Raju is the chief financial officer at Equitable Holdings, the New York-based company founded in 1859 that operated relatively quietly from 1992 through 2018, when it was controlled by AXA of Paris.

AXA began to separate from Equitable through an initial public offering in May 2018. Over the past five years, the company has gotten its New York Stock Exchange listing back and started to get more attention. Its stock recently joined the S&P MidCap 400 Index.

One focus has been Equitable's role as a creator of the modern market for registered index-linked annuities, or RILAs.

A RILA contract is an index-linked annuity that's registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as a security. Because a RILA can expose the contract owner to investment-market-related loss of account principal, the issuer and the buyer can decide just how much of the investment risk the issuer will absorb.

Marketwide RILA sales have grown from zero in 2010 to $34 billion in the first three quarters of this year. In those three quarters, Equitable accounted for $8.2 billion in RILA sales.

Raju oversees the financial machinery behind Equitable's RILA products, its other annuities, its traditional life insurance products and its AllianceBernstein asset management business.

Since he became the CFO, in 2021, he has helped Equitable prepare for major new benefits value accounting rule changes that took effect this year and navigated the company through the COVID-19 pandemic.

Raju is especially conscious of the role that Equitable's investment portfolio plays in supporting the promises the company makes to its clients and the returns the company can provide for shareholders.

"We maintain a high-quality investment portfolio with strong credit ratings to ensure that we can deliver on our long-term commitments," Raju said in an email interview.

Raju has a bachelor's degree from the University of Scranton. He was working as a municipal bond trader when he began working for Equitable in 2004. Before he became the company's CFO, he was head of individual retirement.

He recently answered questions, via email, about how he sees the RILA market, the lingering effects of the pandemic on mortality and investment market trends.

The interview has been edited.

THINKADVISOR: What do you think about the registered index-linked annuity market?

ROBIN RAJU: RILAs allow investors to participate in market upside while providing a cushion against some losses.

The competitive dynamics of RILAs continue to be positive, and we welcome competition.

Given the strong demand from consumers, I see the possibility of new entrants in 2024, but, at this moment, pricing in the market remains exceptionally robust.

How does U.S. mortality look?

We are seeing the effects of COVID-19 as it moves from pandemic to endemic, with mortality above pre-pandemic levels.

As a result, we have seen a pull-forward in mortality recently and expect it to continue over the next few quarters.

Last year, we adjusted our statutory assumptions to account for the increased COVID-19 endemic-related mortality, which means that our cash flows already reflected the increased mortality.

How did the 2023 insurance portfolio investing environment compare with what you expected?

At the start of the year, investors were worried that labor markets could weaken, and inflation would stay stubbornly high, potentially causing a recession.

In reality, it appears the economy has been relatively resilient.

Fundamentals also held up through the year; while rates were volatile, spreads did not widen as much as anticipated, especially in higher beta sectors, like U.S. high yield.

We navigated a complex investment environment and found pockets of opportunity in investment-grade asset classes.

We continue to emphasize quality and diversification as the credit environment softens.

Also, there has been an increased emphasis on the private market that was not expected at the outset of this year, primarily as a result of disruption in the banking space (i.e., the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank).

As banks continue to de-risk balance sheets, it allows insurers, as natural providers of liquidity, to step in and fill those voids.

The Fed's benchmark rates seem to have stabilized. What's happening to the rates that Equitable is really getting on the investment-grade corporate bonds that make up the bulk of its portfolio?

Yields remain elevated and attractive for income-focused investors.

Spreads moved wider on the back of the Silicon Valley Bank fallout this year, but otherwise have not widened as much as originally anticipated — some of this can be attributed to lower issuance year-over-year, which has been met by positive demand.

Higher rates have been an opportunity for us as we focus on companies with resilient balance sheets.

We remain disciplined by avoiding sectors likely to shift into cyclical downturn in the next 12 months and issuers at risk of negative credit rating migration.

Some analysts have predicted that the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on office building occupancy rates and rising interest rates will cause problems for the U.S. office mortgage loan market in 2024. What are your thoughts about the U.S. commercial mortgage loan market?

First, taking a step back, U.S. commercial mortgage loans have historically been an attractive asset class for the insurance industry.

The long-term liabilities that insurance companies write enable us to be reliable sources of capital for commercial property owners due to the long-term and consistent nature of the loans. CMLs continue to provide an attractive risk-adjusted investment.

From a relative value perspective, CMLs typically earn over 50 basis points more than a comparable quality fixed-maturity security, making them an attractive use of capital.

They also have excellent historical performance across multiple down-cycles.

Additionally, the asset class provides more flexibility than many others, allowing us to manage maturities, which helps achieve tighter asset-liability matching.

While the asset class is broadly under pressure due to shifts in the way people live and work, we feel comfortable with the quality of our loan portfolio and our expertise in managing this asset class through various market conditions: 95% of our loans are investment grade and we have a solid track record with zero delinquencies and losses during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic.

Further, our office portfolio continues to have strong occupancy rates, which further limits the risk in the portfolio.

We re-underwrite our CML portfolio every year, while others in our sector only do so at the point of loan origination.

Thus, our loan-to-value ratio reflects the impact of recent market developments like COVID-19 and rising interest rates, giving our shareholders the highest levels of transparency.

In summary, while there are headwinds for commercial real estate, we have a long history in this market and our investments are grounded in sound underwriting.

Looking to 2024, only 9% of our portfolio is coming due, and of this only 2% is in office loans.

Equitable has a long history in this space, and, as a result, we will manage through the current environment with confidence.

What could the current investment environment mean for life insurance and annuity benefits?

Higher interest rates mean that we are investing our general account assets at higher yields, while continuing to maintain a relatively conservative investment strategy.

Higher yields from our investment activity ultimately allow us to offer more attractive terms in the products we offer to our clients.

When markets are volatile, cash is king. How can a life insurance company make sure it has enough cash at the right time?

My motto is to always be prepared; it's about having cash on hand throughout different market cycles.

Since we went public, we've seen volatile equity markets, historically low interest rates, rapid rate hikes due to inflation and a global health pandemic.

Equitable has always maintained a strong risk-based capital ratio and we have holding company cash to return capital to shareholders through various market conditions.

We have diverse sources of earnings that lead to our consistent cash generation, and 50% of our cash flow now comes from non-regulated sources, including AllianceBernstein and our Wealth Management business.

The quality and durability of cash flows enabled us to increase our payout target earlier this year to 60% to 70% of operating earnings.

This is a 20-percentage-point increase since our IPO five years ago, demonstrating a significant shift in our business over time.

Our business is also strongly capitalized and tightly hedged, ensuring our balance sheet is market-neutral and not hurt by swings in equity markets.

How well do you think the industry as a whole is positioned for 2024?

The positioning of the industry looks bright for 2024 as we ride strong societal and demographic tailwinds.

According to reports, every day in the U.S., 11,000 people turn 65, and the number of older adults will more than double over the next several decades to more than 88 million people, representing over 20% of the population by 2050.

Americans are living longer, and they retire with greater aspirations but face a meaningful shortfall in their retirement funds.

The burden of retirement savings has moved from employers to employees as we see a continuing shift from traditional pensions to employee-funded savings programs.

We have the ability to address this shortfall and expect this to be a $32 trillion addressable retirement market by the end of the decade.

The favorable demographic trends and higher interest rates provide the best backdrop for growth we've seen in well over a decade.

Equitable is well-positioned to capitalize on these tailwinds given our unique business model, capturing all three components of the insurance value chain — product manufacturing, asset management and distribution.

Robin Raju. Credit: Equitable

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