Bob Doll Grades His 10 Predictions for 2023

Making annual market and economic predictions proved more difficult for Bob Doll and Crossmark Global Investments in 2023 than in a typical year, the chief investment officer indicated Monday. By year end, Doll expects to have gotten only five of his 10 predictions for 2023 right, "one of our worst years and well below our long-term average of 7.0-7.5," he wrote in his weekly Doll's Deliberations newsletter. This year was challenging for investors, as multiples expanded despite flattish earnings and a long-anticipated recession didn't materialize, Doll noted. Equity concentration accelerated, as the "Magnificent 7" big tech stocks far outpaced the average stock, he added. Investors are counting on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates early next year to validate high stock valuations, Doll said. The big investment question for 2024 is whether consensus expectations for double-digit earnings growth, no recession and early Fed rate cuts will happen, the CIO said, positing that "we are dubious that all these good things can happen simultaneously." Doll plans to release his 2024 outlook on Dec. 29. In the meantime, check the gallery to see which of his 2023 predictions were on and off the mark.