Sixty-two percent of financial advisors in a new survey from InspereX say that rates on 2-year U.S. Treasurys are now at peak, while 26% believe that rates will hit 6% and 12% said that they will rise to between 7% and 9% over the next 18 months.
Advisors think differently about the 10-year Treasury, suggesting that the inverted yield curve may be coming to an end, InspereX said. Thirty-four percent of participants believe that 10-year rates have peaked, and 24% expect them to hit 5% over the next year and a half. Thirty-one percent said they would rise to 6%, 10% said between 7% and 9%, and 1% said 9%.
"The rising rate environment has meant one thing for fixed income markets: Bonds are back and once again at the forefront of the asset allocation discussion," John Tolar, head of fixed income sales and trading at InspereX, said in a statement.
"Here at InspereX, we saw sales reach 10-year highs in both October and November, with more than $12 billion in fixed income notional value distributed. Our results were driven by robust sales for InterNotes, corporate debt offerings designed for individual investors, which had their best performance of the year in November."
RedZone Marketing conducted the survey between Oct. 23 and Oct. 30 among 384 financial professionals from RIAs, banks, broker-dealers and regional firms. During the survey period, the 2-year Treasury closed as high as 5.145%, while the 10-year Treasury closed as high as 4.961%. The S&P 500 closed as high as 4,247.
Rising Rates Benefit Advisors
According to the financial advisors surveyed, higher-yielding fixed income has had a positive effect on their business:
- Clients are moving some of their equity allocation into fixed income: 68%
- Higher rates have made conversations with clients more positive: 65%
- Clients are eager to lock in higher rates for as long as possible: 61%
- Higher rates have made it easier to win new business: 52%
But advisors offered a word of caution about higher rates, with 59% reporting that investors are looking only at rates and do not understand that they can lose money in fixed income. And more than half said that clients do not believe that the 60/40 portfolio is back.
"It's refreshing to see advisors express optimism within fixed income markets moving forward, as they're forecasting an end to the prolonged inversion of the yield curve," Tolar said.
He noted that in last year's survey, 74% of advisors said they expected the inverted yield curve to continue into the 2023 second quarter, including 40% who expected it to last beyond the third quarter.
