Dave Ramsey's 8% Withdrawal Advice Could Lead to Ruin: Peter Mallouk

News December 11, 2023 at 02:54 PM
Share & Print

Creative Planning President Peter Mallouk on Monday criticized as financially disastrous radio host Dave Ramsey's recent advice on retirement withdrawal rates, apparently aligning with the retirement researchers, dubbed "supernerds" by Ramsey, who call for a more conservative approach.

" Dave Ramsey recently advocated for an 8% withdrawal rate with a 100% stock portfolio. While I believe he has done a lot of good for many, especially when it comes to debt management, following this advice is a path to financial destruction," Mallouk posted on X, formerly Twitter.

His post included a chart showing "many time periods when an 8% withdrawal rate led to zeroing out the portfolio." The graphic showed 13 retirement periods from 1965 to 2007 when Ramsey's advice would have completely drained a retiree's all-stock holdings.

Mallouk didn't tweet his own retirement withdrawal advice but told ThinkAdvisor via email that he generally recommends a 4% or 5% rate, "though I think a higher withdrawal rate works for many, depending on age."

The 4% rule typically calls for initially withdrawing 4% of a portfolio in retirement, then adjusting the withdrawal upward for inflation each year.

"The 8% withdrawal rate is high risk with a high probability to fail not only with a 100% stock allocation, but with any allocation," Mallouk said.

In a podcast last year, Mallouk said Creative Planning suggests retirees keep enough bonds in their portfolios to get through a crisis and invest the rest of their money in stocks and similar securities to stay ahead of inflation.

He told ThinkAdvisor on Monday that the firm recommends clients have enough bonds and income from their portfolio to cover five to seven years of income needs.

Personal finance celebrity Ramsey in a recent podcast denounced strategists who advocate safe withdrawal rates as "goobers" and "supernerds" who "live in their mother's basement with a calculator."

The widely recommended 4% safe withdrawal rate is unrealistic and leads people to think they'll never save enough to live on that income in retirement, according to Ramsey.

"A million dollars should be able to create an $80,000 income for you, boys and girls, perpetually! Forever!" Ramsey said.

In response, retirement and wealth planning experts David Blanchett, Michael Finke and Wade Pfau, who all teach at the American College of Financial Services, wrote a column for ThinkAdvisor calling Ramsey's advice dangerous and his math wrong.

"No retiree should have their savings entirely in stocks. Bonds help buffer downturns … And no retiree should believe that they can maintain an $80,000 lifestyle after saving $1 million. They either need to save more, retire a little later or spend less. Although reality is a little more depressing, it is still reality," they wrote.

Ramsey's simple calculation — retirees experiencing 12% mutual fund returns and 4% average inflation should be able to withdraw 8% from their portfolios — doesn't account for the difference between average returns and real-time earnings from an investment, they noted.

Nor does it take into account sequence of return risk, i.e., the negative effects of high withdrawals during a market downturn early in retirement, they said.

Peter Mallouk. Photo: Janie Jones

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Related Stories

Resource Center