Smaller 401(k), IRA Contribution Limit Increases Expected in 2024

News September 27, 2023 at 05:13 PM
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Unless a federal government shutdown derails the normal course of business, the Internal Revenue Service will announce 2024's 401(k) plan and individual retirement account contribution limits in less than a month's time.

Despite the persistence of high inflation, tax experts anticipate that 2024's increase will fall significantly below the sizable limit hike of $2,000 enjoyed by retirement savers for 2023. That increase pushed the 2023 contribution limit to $22,500 for 401(k), 4013(b) and 457 plans, although savers over 50 can use catch-up contributions to sock away up to $30,000 this year.

According to projections from Bloomberg Tax and Milliman, the defined contribution plan deferral increase for 2024 is likely to be in the range of $500, or only about one quarter of the 2023 increase.

A similar boost is projected for contributions going to both traditional and Roth individual retirement accounts. These limits only increased from $6,000 to $6,500 for 2023, and a similar hike is projected for 2024.

Should these projections prove accurate, that would imply a 2024 contribution limit of $23,000 for 401(k), 4013(b) and 457 plans. For IRAs, the 2024 limit would be $7,000, with an additional $1,000 of potential catch-up contributions allowed for those over age 50.

According to the projections, for defined contribution plans, the maximum annual addition counting all potential employer and employee contributions will be between $68,000 and $69,000, and the catch-up contribution limit for 2024 is estimated to remain at $7,500, the same level as in 2023.

Smaller Social Security COLA Also Expected

Another key data point expected to be released in mid-October is the 2024 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.

According to projections by The Senior Citizens League, the 2024 Social Security COLA is likely to be 3.2%, based on the latest consumer price index data released in mid-September.

This latest projection is up slightly from the 3% prediction made in August, thanks to higher inflation data across many key CPI categories. Specifically, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), the index used to determine the COLA, rose 3.7% over the prior 12 months, while increasing 0.6% in August — compared with a 0.2% rise in July.

A COLA of this size would raise the current average monthly benefit of $1,789 by a little more than $57, but Social Security recipients won't learn the bottom line until the Medicare Part B premiums are announced, according to The Senior Citizens League.

The actual 2024 COLA will be based on third-quarter inflation data and will be announced in October.

Investors' Inflation Predictions

As ThinkAdvisor has reported, savers across the board remain concerned about the potential impact of inflation on their standard of living in retirement, though they are less concerned about inflation's shorter-term impact on the equity markets.

One recent Morgan Stanley survey, for example, shows more than half of respondents are bullish about the third quarter, with 58% believing the market will end in the green. This is 10 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

Still, 52% of investors surveyed said high inflation is their chief concern regarding their portfolio, followed by 31% who said they worried about a recession and 26% about volatility. Nine in 10 respondents believe that volatility will increase or stay the same this quarter, a slight increase over the second quarter.

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