12 Worst States for COVID-19 ICU Trends

The new wave of COVID-19 inpatient hospital admissions is producing an increase in the number of adult COVID-19 patients using intensive care unit beds in the U.S. The average number of adult COVID-19 patients in ICU beds increased to 1,610 during the week ending Sept. 2, up 15.3% from the total recorded a week earlier, and up 50% from the number recorded four weeks earlier, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In states with at least four adult COVID-19 ICU patients, the percentage change in ICU patient counts ranged from a decrease of 36% in Hawaii up to an increase of more than 100%. Counts decreased in just seven states and Puerto Rico. Half of states with data had an increase of more than 12%. For a look at the 12 states with the biggest meaningful percentage increases in the number of such patients, see the gallery. (We excluded states with fewer than four adult COVID-19 ICU patients in the latest week and states in which the count increased from zero.)

What It Means

For agents and advisors, one question is whether the current wave of U.S. COVID-19 hospitalizations will really lead to a noticeable increase in mortality. The latest CDC death counts, which are included with a weekly influenza tracking report, show that the very early, incomplete total U.S. death count for August was 186,708. That was 7.3% higher than the comparable early total recorded for August 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic started, but 1.1% lower than the comparable early total for July 2023. The increasing number of adult COVID-19 ICU patients could be a sign that the new wave will cause an increase in the number of deaths.

The Context

The average number of adult COVID-19 ICU patients in the week ending Sept. 2 is down sharply, from 4,614, in the comparable week in 2022. About 8.7% of the adult patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the latest week were in the ICU. The percentage of all hospitalized adult COVID-19 patients who were in the ICU was up from 8.3% in the previous week, down from 10% four weeks earlier, and down from 13% in the comparable week in 2022. One obstacle to tracking ICU data trends is that the numbers in many states are low, and state authorities or the CDC may hide numbers to avoid violating patients' privacy.

Hospital Reporting Trends

Another obstacle to tracking COVID-19 ICU use trends is a decrease in the number of hospitals taking the time to report COVID-19 data to the CDC. The United States has a total of about 919,000 inpatient hospital beds, according to the American Hospital Association. The number of hospital beds included in the latest CDC data has fallen to about 694,000, down 7.7% from the number included a year ago. The number of beds in the data has dropped 2.2% in California, 2.6% in Florida and 8.9% in Texas...