Court's Bitcoin ETF Ruling Isn't a Slam Dunk

Commentary September 06, 2023 at 04:08 PM
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Advisors and investors are celebrating the ruling by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit in the case of Grayscale v. SEC.

Grayscale complained that although the SEC has approved bitcoin futures ETFs, it has consistently rejected every spot bitcoin ETF application — a position that nobody outside the SEC believes makes any sense.

Futures contracts are derivatives, after all, so if you are OK with the derivatives, how can you not be OK with the underlying asset? It's like saying you can eat ketchup but not tomatoes.

At least, that was Grayscale's argument. And on Aug. 29, the court agreed, saying, "The denial of Grayscale's proposal was arbitrary and capricious because the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products."

The court noted that the SEC must not permit "unfair discrimination between customers, issuers, brokers or dealers," and since Grayscale's bitcoin ETF would be similar to approved bitcoin futures ETFs, the SEC is obligated to explain why a bitcoin ETF is materially different from a bitcoin futures ETF.

The SEC has failed to do this.

In fact, the court noted that Grayscale had provided the SEC with substantial evidence that its proposed bitcoin ETF (which would allow investors to be able to own bitcoin without having to buy, store or secure it themselves) was similar to approved bitcoin futures ETFs. Therefore, the court said, Grayscale's spot bitcoin ETF application should also have received approval.

Indeed, the court noted that the SEC did not dispute Grayscale's evidence that the spot market and the futures market for bitcoin are 99.9% correlated.

That's why the court blasted the SEC, calling its actions "unreasonable."

Writing for the three-judge panel, Judge Neomi Rao wrote, "Because the spot bitcoin market and the bitcoin futures market are so tightly correlated, a price distortion in the spot market will be reflected in the price of the futures market. After all, futures are derivatives of the spot market. The SEC failed to explain why a bitcoin futures ETF protects investors from potential fraud, but not Grayscale's proposed bitcoin ETF."

The court also said the SEC offered no compelling reason why it felt that a measure for assessing the potential for fraud and manipulation was necessary for bitcoin ETFs but unnecessary for bitcoin futures ETFs.

Bottom line, the court said: "The SEC failed to reasonably explain why it approved the listing of two bitcoin futures ETPs but not Grayscale's similar proposed bitcoin ETF."

Thus, the SEC's behavior was "arbitrary and capricious."

"This unlike regulatory treatment of like products is unlawful," Rao wrote. "We therefore grant Grayscale's petition and vacate the SEC's order."

Cheers immediately erupted throughout the crypto community. Within minutes, bitcoin's price rose 8%. And the discount in Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust — which has been as large as 60% — also shrunk massively, as investors expect GBTC to soon convert to ETF status (at which time the discount will completely evaporate).

Potential SEC Appeal or Acceptance?

But the story isn't over yet.

The SEC could appeal the ruling — an action it often takes when it doesn't get the ruling it wants. The agency has 45 days to make that decision.

Or the SEC could acquiesce. That doesn't mean that the SEC will approve Grayscale's spot bitcoin application. The court didn't order the SEC to do that; it merely said the SEC's rejection was invalid because the SEC failed to explain why it rejected the application.

So, the SEC might decide to issue those explanations along with a new rejection letter to Grayscale. That would restart this entire process.

Or the SEC could admit it is wrong — and approve not only Grayscale's spot bitcoin ETF application, but many of the others as well.

That would unleash hundreds of thousands of financial advisors into action, potentially allocating hundreds of millions of dollars — and perhaps tens of billions — into bitcoin and other digital assets. The price of bitcoin would be expected to surge. The fact that it rose 5% within minutes of the court ruling is an early indication of the results of SEC approval of the spot bitcoin ETF applications.

Advisors and investors are excited that this ruling will soon lead to spot bitcoin ETFs being available to U.S. investors.

While nothing is certain, the court's ruling is the most bullish signal for crypto in years.

Learn more about this issue by reading my new white paper: What You Need To Know About Spot Bitcoin ETFs, so you can fully understand what's going on and better serve your clients.


Ric Edelman is an author and founder of RIA Edelman Financial Engines (earlier Edelman Financial Services). He now leads the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals.

Pictured: Ric Edelman

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