Jeremy Siegel: AI Revolution Won't Happen Overnight

News June 26, 2023 at 02:36 PM
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Economist Jeremy Siegel isn't convinced that artificial intelligence will be as revolutionary as some expect but doesn't consider the current market frenzy over the technology anything close to the dot-com bubble.

Siegel, a Wharton School finance professor emeritus and WisdomTree senior economist, spoke on a WisdomTree webcast last week, asking whether AI is quantitatively different from the continuous technological revolution society has experienced for the past 50 years.

"Is this a break, in other words, that is going to accelerate the replacement of people, disrupt entire industries?" he posited. "I would say the jury is out on that. I may be one of the more skeptical that it is going to be a revolutionary change as we've never seen before."

Society will see AI's potential, as it did with the internet, and some people will have to find new work, but it's uncertain now whether the technology will bring a break from history, Siegel said.

"A seismic shift at this point doesn't really seem to me to be in the cards," he said.

While the internet did change the world, Siegel noted that many of the industry's big "first movers" were superseded or ceased to exist.

"What I'm saying is that there's always a rotation that goes on. The first movers don't always survive," Siegel said.

While the AI frenzy may feel similar to the 1998-2000 dot-com bubble, today's tech companies are different, he said.

"These are real companies that are making profits," Siegel said, noting also that the Nasdaq index valuation is far lower now than in 2000.

"We are not anywhere near there. I think we use the term bubble a little too quickly. … I see nothing like 2000, which tells me this can go much longer," Siegel said, adding that the market can get into a mode where stock prices are driven more by momentum than valuation.

Siegel noted that big changes sparked by the internet didn't necessarily occur overnight. E-commerce effects on retailing, for example, have taken 25 years, Siegel said.

The economist acknowledged that things invented in the past 40 years changed his life, with word processing enabling him to write a book.

Despite all the revolutionary technology since the 20th century, however, Siegel said productivity hasn't accelerated in the past 75 years. From 1947 to the present, he added, productivity has sloped downward.

People may be gaining leisure time, but the economy isn't seeing a GDP increase from technology, he said.

Photo: Bloomberg

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