Why Bob Doll Is Bracing for a Market Downturn

News May 15, 2023 at 11:59 AM

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Crossmark Global Investments Chief Investment Officer Bob Doll continues to maintain a cautious tone toward the stock market.

The S&P 500, trading in a 3,800 to 4,200 range for the past half year, is more likely to "break to the downside" than the upside, Doll said Monday.

In his weekly "Doll's Deliberations" newsletter, he cited tightening credit conditions and noted how split the market is, with only 52% of S&P stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages.

" In the short-term, the choppy sidewise … stock market is likely to continue. The easing in inflation will allow central banks to pause, but we do not envision a rate-cutting cycle for the foreseeable future," he wrote.

"The intermediate-term backdrop is not market-friendly, as it is probable that a recession will be needed to sustainably return inflation to near central banks' targets. Thus, we remain cyclically cautious in our investment stance," Doll said.

The earnings backdrop is likely eventually to "deteriorate to the point that the stock market breaks down," he said.

While markets expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at least 25 basis points by September, Doll said he considers cuts that soon to be unlikely. Doll noted the U.S. national debt is at 118% of gross domestic product, a level not seen since right after World War II.

With U.S. interest rates up and rising debt servicing expenses, he added, a three-decade period marked by accommodative Fed policy is ending.

(Image: Bloomberg)

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