The recently released Social Security and Medicare trustees report shows in no uncertain terms that both programs are fiscally unsustainable as currently structured, with the main trust fund used to support the payment of retirement benefits on track to be depleted by the mid-2030s.
Despite what's often assumed, Americans' federal retirement income benefits won't disappear at that time, but they will be subject to a cut in the realm of 25%. Unless congressional action is taken to shore up both programs, anticipated reductions in Medicare reimbursements going to hospitals and doctors offices could cause the price of health care to spike for seniors.
It's a worrying picture, experts agree, and the longer Congress waits to act, the more severe the eventual remedies (or benefit cuts) will have to be. For now, policy experts continue to debate and discuss potential responses, as do members of the general public, and few anticipate a solution will be struck in the current, divided Congress.
While there's substantial disagreement about the role of tax increases or the treatment of benefits for the highest-earning Americans, one emerging area of consensus is opposition to proposals that aim to raise the full retirement age to 70. It's currently set at 67 for workers born after 1960.
Many workers see such an increase as untenable and unfair — with analysts saying such a move will actually do very little to right the ship. According to the American Academy of Actuaries, for example, setting a retirement age at 69 or 70 would close only about 30% to 40% of the projected funding shortfall.
As such, it's clear that a mix of policy responses will be required, experts say, and this debate will have to take place within the process for figuring out the best ways to "save" Social Security and Medicare.
The Age Debate
As highlighted in a new analysis published by Morningstar, the current Social Security rules are designed to pay everyone with roughly equal earnings roughly the same lifetime benefit, no matter when a person claims.
"You can file for a retirement benefit as early as age 62, or delay up to age 70," writes Mark Miller, an author on retirement and Morningstar contributor. "If you claim at age 62, your monthly benefit will be considerably smaller than if you claim at age 66 — but you're likely to collect those benefits for a greater number of years."
Conversely, a later claim will confer a higher monthly benefit, but this higher benefit will be enjoyed for a shorter period of time.
In Miller's view, the vast majority of workers would benefit by waiting until age 70 to claim, when they will collect the maximum possible benefit. However, most workers today don't get anywhere close to filing their claim at age 70.
"And that's not surprising, considering the universal nature of Social Security, which covers nearly all of the diverse U.S. population," Miller says. "Working well past 65, or even past 70, can be feasible for better-educated knowledge workers, but it's not a practical option for people who hold physically demanding jobs."
As Miller points out, Democrats generally favor shoring up Social Security's finances via new taxes on the wealthy. Republican positions vary, but Miller says the only "substantive proposal," from conservatives in the House of Representatives, would gradually raise the full retirement age to 70, based on the premise that greater longevity demands a higher full benefit age.
"It's true that average life spans in the U.S. have risen over the past couple of decades," Miller concedes. "The expected life span for men and women at age 65 has jumped more than 10% since 2000, according to the Society of Actuaries. But further gains are not assured. Life spans actually have been falling since the onset of the pandemic."
What's more, Miller says, is that higher longevity is not distributed evenly across the U.S. population. Instead, there is a substantial and widening gap in mortality gains by income and by race, making the prospect of raising the retirement age to 70 even more problematic.
The Math on Taxes
Since the publication of the 2023 trustees report, a number of Social Security experts have staked out a similar position to Miller's.
