12 States Where Working-Age Death Counts Are Still High

Death finally seemed to ease up on U.S. residents ages 25 through 64 in February. The total number of deaths of working-age people in that age group, from all causes, was 5.5% lower than the February average for the period from 2015 through 2019, according to the very earliest mortality data available from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But all-cause death counts for working-age people were more than 4.5% higher than the 2015-2019 baseline in 12 states and New York City, and up by almost 40% in one state. Before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, anything that increased the death rate for a large group of people by more than 2% was considered a major news story. For the 12 states with the biggest increases in working-age death counts over the 2015-2019 baseline level, see the gallery above. For data on all 50 states and other jurisdictions included in the CDC state data, see the table below.

What It Means

The U.S. death rate for working-age people might have returned to a pre-COVID-19 level for the first month since March 2020. If mortality stays low, that could ease fears about the possibility that COVID-19, long COVID, the effects of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments, and the effects of the pandemic on society and the health care system has caused a permanent increase in U.S. mortality rates.

Limitations

One concern is whether the apparent drop in working-age mortality is due partly to state data submission delays. At press time, for example, Louisiana had sent the CDC only four days of mortality data for February. Other states might also be slower to send the CDC their numbers.