Life and Annuity Stocks Weather Credit Suisse Storm

Analysis March 21, 2023 at 04:43 PM
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Wall Street warmed up to life and annuity issuers this week, in spite of Swiss regulators' move to force UBS to acquire Credit Suisse.

The median share price of 16 large, publicly traded U.S. life and annuity issuers has fallen 21% in the past month, to $44.43.

But the median share price is still 130% higher than it was three years ago, and it has increased 0.2% over the past five days.

Most stock analysts predict that the Federal Reserve Board and the world's other central bankers will take an approach that could be great for life insurers: replacing efforts to shove interests up quickly with gentle moves to nudge rates more slowly.

But details on just what the new conditions could mean for life and annuity issuers' $3 trillion in derivatives exposure have been scarce.

What It Means

Investors seem to think that the companies backing your clients' life insurance policies and annuity contracts will get through the current rough waters.

The Spring Run

Depositors' and investors' general sense of unease has powered runs, for a variety of reasons, at several different banks in the past 10 days.

Regulators have cited concerns about asset-liability matching as the driver in the run that shut down Silicon Valley Bank, worries about involvement with cryptocurrency for a takeover of Signature Bank of New York, and fears about governance as a top cause of the forced UBS-Credit Suisse marriage.

The Insurers

The insurers we included in our analysis are American Equity Investment Life, Ameriprise, Brighthouse Financial, CNO Financial, Corebridge Financial, Equitable Holdings, F&G Annuities & Life, Globe Life, Genworth Financial, Globe Life, Jackson Financial, Lincoln National, MetLife, Principal Financial, Primerica, Prudential Financial and Reinsurance Group of America.

Some of the companies may have ample cash to help support their own stock prices.

American Equity, for example, announced Monday that it was working with JPMorgan to spend an extra $200 million on buying back shares of its own common stock, on top of its existing $276 million stock repurchase fund.

The extra share buyback amounts to about 7% of the company's $2.9 billion market capitalization amount, or the total value of all outstanding shares of American Equity common stock.

The Derivatives

Regulators and rating agencies have talked at length about financial services companies' direct exposure to stocks and bonds issued by the companies in that sector that have been subject to sudden regulatory action.

Details about the possible effects of the regulatory actions on the derivatives markets have been scarce.

Life and annuity issuers have about $8.6 trillion in assets. They ended 2021 with $3 trillion in "notional," or total, exposure to derivatives, including $1.2 trillion in options, $1.1 trillion in interest rate swaps, $174 billion in currency swap derivatives and $83 billion in credit default swap derivatives, according to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners' Capital Markets Bureau.

Insurers' derivatives are usually set up in such a way that the true amount at risk is far smaller than the total notional value of the derivatives.

Banks and other institutions with data in a recent Office of the Comptroller of the Currency derivatives report had about $195 trillion in notional derivatives exposure, but netted current credit exposure amounted to just $390 billion, or about 0.2% of the total notional exposure.

Derivatives and the Spring Run

Sean Girdwood and other finance law experts at Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney noted, in a look at the U.S. takeovers of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other regulators structured the takeovers in a way that could minimize effects on derivatives arrangements.

Regulators created "bridge banks" to hold most of the banks' activities, the FDIC does not see the bridge banks as defaulting lenders.

"As a result, absent some independent grounds for default (i.e., defaults based on non-performance), the bridge banks will expect counterparties to continue to perform; and counterparties, therefore, should expect performance from the bridge banks, notwithstanding contractual provisions which would otherwise deem FDIC receivership an automatic default," according to the Buchanan analysts.

Fitch Ratings said, in an announcement that it was putting UBS ratings on "Rating Watch Negative" because of the Credit Suisse acquisition, that its ratings on UBS and Credit Suisse as derivatives counterparties are the same as the companies' long-term issuer default ratings, because "counterparties in Switzerland have no definitive preferential status over other senior obligations in a resolution."

Most information about how the derivatives markets are performing is available only in data systems held behind paywalls.

One derivatives market health window is Intercontinental Exchange's Move index, which uses changes in the prices of options on Treasurys to track interest rate options volatility.

The Move index spiked to 182.64 Monday, up from 125.27 a year earlier, and up from 167.96 Friday. Increasing market calm helped the index fall to 162.31 at 3:40 p.m. Tuesday.

But Andrea Enria, chairman of the European Banking Authority, on Tuesday told members of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs that banks must carefully monitor risks related to their derivatives-based hedging arrangements.

European regulators has found hedging weaknesses at some banks when reviewing their stress testing results, Enria said.

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