Stocks Have Running Room as Optimism Emerges: Josh Brown

News January 12, 2023 at 05:17 PM
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The stock market has room to run as investors adjust portfolios after a rough 2022 and show some optimism about the new year, according to Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO Josh Brown.

"December was a trash fire so I still think a lot of what we're seeing here is the end of tax-related selling pressure coming off and just a little more optimism about the year to come," Brown said Wednesday on CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime," commenting on 2023′s early stock market rally.

"I think everybody fully understands what the headwinds are at this point, there's been a ton of pessimism now for six months, nobody is predicting anything specifically great for either the economy or for earnings, so that gives you room to move up and I think it gives you even more room if we get continued confirmation that the Fed is getting its way," he said.

Brown's comments came the day before the federal government released December consumer price data showing inflation continuing to cool, in line with economists' expectations. Stocks rallied again Thursday, with the data potentially signaling the Federal Reserve will soften its program to fight inflation by raising interest rates.

The Consumer Price Index will be market-moving and something investors will need to focus on every month as long as the Fed continues its rate-hiking cycle, Brown said, correctly predicting Thursday's data would move markets even if it came in as expected.

"This is not one of those data points that I'm willing to dismiss," he said, noting that much data has been moving in the direction the Fed wants.

The CPI slipped slightly from November's level, while prices rose 6.5% year over year, the lowest inflation number in more than a year.

The CME Fed Watch Tool gives more than 96% odds that the Fed will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in February.

Brown also noted that stock market investors are getting accustomed to the fact that bonds are no longer experiencing negative yield. The fact that this change is becoming normalized "is the best development that we're able to talk about right now," he said.

The fact that many laggards from last year are early winners in 2023 "could turn on a dime tomorrow" and isn't that rare, according to Brown, who noted that new money comes into the market in January and investors often rebalance portfolios in a new quarter or year.

"You are going to see that rebalance effect and you are going to see the laggards have their moment in the sun. That's probably what we're experiencing right now," Brown said.

Growth stocks that were down 40% or more may be getting index support as well, according to Brown, who also noted there may be "no one left to sell" after tax-related selling.

Pictured: Josh Brown

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