For the first time since January 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic surfaced, U.S. mortality for working-age people might be getting back to what financial professionals might think of as normal. But conditions vary from market to market.
The number of serious COVID-19 cases appears to be spiking in China, and the CDC has reported a dramatic increase in the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases caused by the omicron XBB.1.5 variant. For financial professionals and their clients, the driving question will be whether the drop in working-age mortality in the fourth quarter was part of a long-lasting return to normal or a temporary lull.
..Deaths of People Ages 25-64, From All Causes, From Oct. 1 Through Mid-December | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
.. | ..2019 | ..2020 | Change between 2019 & 2020 | ..2021 | Change between 2019 & 2021 | ..2022 | Change Between 2019 & 2022 |
..Alabama.. | ..2,967.. | ..3,559.. | ..20.0%.. | ..4,018.. | ..35.4%.. | ..3,065.. | ..3.3%.. |
..Alaska.. | ..282.. | ..371.. | ..31.6%.. | ..596.. | ..111.3%.. | ..238.. | ..-15.6%.. |
..Arizona.. | ..3,001.. | ..3,819.. | ..27.3%.. | ..4,961.. | ..65.3%.. | ..3,413.. | ..13.7%.. |
..Arkansas.. | ..1,664.. | ..2,224.. | ..33.7%.. | ..2,335.. | ..40.3%.. | ..1,831.. | ..10.0%.. |
..California.. | ..13,296.. | ..16,732.. | ..25.8%.. | ..17,719.. | ..33.3%.. | ..14,058.. | ..5.7%.. |
..Colorado.. | ..2,102.. | ..2,616.. | ..24.5%.. | ..3,435.. | ..63.4%.. | ..2,374.. | ..12.9%.. |
..Connecticut.. | ..1,368.. | ..1,594.. | ..16.5%.. | ..1,658.. | ..21.2%.. | ..1,455.. | ..6.4%.. |
..Delaware.. | ..448.. | ..429.. | ..-4.2%.. | ..573.. | ..27.9%.. | ..531.. | ..18.5%.. |
..District of Columbia.. | ..406.. | ..500.. | ..23.2%.. | ..540.. | ..33.0%.. | ..337.. | ..-17.0%.. |
..Florida.. | ..9,961.. | ..11,545.. | ..15.9%.. | ..12,855.. | ..29.1%.. | ..10,432.. | ..4.7%.. |
..Georgia.. | ..5,097.. | ..6,139.. | ..20.4%.. | ..7,111.. | ..39.5%.. | ..4,837.. | ..-5.1%.. |
..Hawaii.. | ..452.. | ..459.. | ..1.5%.. | ..584.. | ..29.2%.. | ..519.. | ..14.8%.. |
..Idaho.. | ..553.. | ..762.. | ..37.8%.. | ..1,160.. | ..109.8%.. | ..662.. | ..19.7%.. |
..Illinois.. | ..5,138.. | ..6,416.. | ..24.9%.. | ..6,558.. | ..27.6%.. | ..5,565.. | ..8.3%.. |
..Indiana.. | ..3,377.. | ..4,259.. | ..26.1%.. | ..4,796.. | ..42.0%.. | ..3,217.. | ..-4.7%.. |
..Iowa.. | ..1,274.. | ..1,582.. | ..24.2%.. | ..1,750.. | ..37.4%.. | ..1,109.. | ..-13.0%.. |
..Kansas.. | ..1,247.. | ..1,494.. | ..19.8%.. | ..1,602.. | ..28.5%.. | ..1,274.. | ..2.2%.. |
..Kentucky.. | ..2,743.. | ..3,624.. | ..32.1%.. | ..4,060.. | ..48.0%.. | ..2,837.. | ..3.4%.. |
..Louisiana.. | ..2,845.. | ..3,376.. | ..18.7%.. | ..3,462.. | ..21.7%.. | ..2,205.. | ..-22.5%.. |
..Maine.. | ..650.. | ..665.. | ..2.3%.. | ..930.. | ..43.1%.. | ..797.. | ..22.6%.. |
..Maryland.. | ..2,585.. | ..3,166.. | ..22.5%.. | ..3,158.. | ..22.2%.. | ..2,549.. | ..-1.4%.. |
..Massachusetts.. | ..2,607.. | ..2,718.. | ..4.3%.. | ..3,037.. | ..16.5%.. | ..2,703.. | ..3.7%.. |
..Michigan.. | ..4,755.. | ..5,766.. | ..21.3%.. | ..6,907.. | ..45.3%.. | ..5,126.. | ..7.8%.. |
..Minnesota.. | ..1,831.. | ..2,272.. | ..24.1%.. | ..2,783.. | ..52.0%.. | ..1,859.. | ..1.5%.. |
..Mississippi.. | ..1,823.. | ..2,397.. | ..31.5%.. | ..2,264.. | ..24.2%.. | ..1,952.. | ..7.1%.. |
..Missouri.. | ..3,343.. | ..4,237.. | ..26.7%.. | ..4,253.. | ..27.2%.. | ..3,047.. | ..-8.9%.. |
..Montana.. | ..404.. | ..617.. | ..52.7%.. | ..776.. | ..92.1%.. | ..518.. | ..28.2%.. |
..Nebraska.. | ..648.. | ..943.. | ..45.5%.. | ..1,044.. | ..61.1%.. | ..664.. | ..2.5%.. |
..Nevada.. | ..1,406.. | ..1,868.. | ..32.9%.. | ..2,027.. | ..44.2%.. | ..1,546.. | ..10.0%.. |
..New Hampshire.. | ..475.. | ..526.. | ..10.7%.. | ..663.. | ..39.6%.. | ..613.. | ..29.1%.. |
..New Jersey.. | ..3,326.. | ..3,930.. | ..18.2%.. | ..3,863.. | ..16.1%.. | ..3,403.. | ..2.3%.. |
..New Mexico.. | ..1,158.. | ..1,626.. | ..40.4%.. | ..1,896.. | ..63.7%.. | ..1,056.. | ..-8.8%.. |
..New York.. | ..4,059.. | ..4,639.. | ..14.3%.. | ..5,424.. | ..33.6%.. | ..4,708.. | ..16.0%.. |
..New York City.. | ..2,888.. | ..3,195.. | ..10.6%.. | ..3,392.. | ..17.5%.. | ..3,361.. | ..16.4%.. |
..North Carolina.. | ..5,043.. | ..5,974.. | ..18.5%.. | ..7,193.. | ..42.6%.. | ..5,468.. | ..8.4%.. |
..North Dakota.. | ..319.. | ..420.. | ..31.7%.. | ..526.. | ..64.9%.. | ..284.. | ..-11.0%.. |
..Ohio.. | ..6,340.. | ..7,455.. | ..17.6%.. | ..9,072.. | ..43.1%.. | ..6,518.. | ..2.8%.. |
..Oklahoma.. | ..2,153.. | ..2,750.. | ..27.7%.. | ..2,997.. | ..39.2%.. | ..2,227.. | ..3.4%.. |
..Oregon.. | ..1,649.. | ..1,888.. | ..14.5%.. | ..2,346.. | ..42.3%.. | ..1,806.. | ..9.5%.. |
..Pennsylvania.. | ..6,146.. | ..6,899.. | ..12.3%.. | ..8,401.. | ..36.7%.. | ..6,210.. | ..1.0%.. |
..Puerto Rico.. | ..1,314.. | ..1,535.. | ..16.8%.. | ..1,449.. | ..10.3%.. | ..1,516.. | ..15.4%.. |
..Rhode Island.. | ..351.. | ..434.. | ..23.6%.. | ..511.. | ..45.6%.. | ..385.. | ..9.7%.. |
..South Carolina.. | ..2,800.. | ..3,424.. | ..22.3%.. | ..3,958.. | ..41.4%.. | ..3,189.. | ..13.9%.. |
..South Dakota.. | ..339.. | ..465.. | ..37.2%.. | ..505.. | ..49.0%.. | ..266.. | ..-21.5%.. |
..Tennessee.. | ..4,399.. | ..5,455.. | ..24.0%.. | ..6,338.. | ..44.1%.. | ..4,816.. | ..9.5%.. |
..Texas.. | ..11,809.. | ..15,231.. | ..29.0%.. | ..16,694.. | ..41.4%.. | ..12,028.. | ..1.9%.. |
..Utah.. | ..953.. | ..1,188.. | ..24.7%.. | ..1,473.. | ..54.6%.. | ..1,021.. | ..7.1%.. |
..Vermont.. | ..208.. | ..209.. | ..0.5%.. | ..268.. | ..28.8%.. | ..224.. | ..7.7%.. |
..Virginia.. | ..3,378.. | ..4,033.. | ..19.4%.. | ..4,791.. | ..41.8%.. | ..3,720.. | ..10.1%.. |
..Washington.. | ..2,720.. | ..3,017.. | ..10.9%.. | ..3,815.. | ..40.3%.. | ..3,019.. | ..11.0%.. |
..West Virginia.. | ..1,242.. | ..1,493.. | ..20.2%.. | ..1,985.. | ..59.8%.. | ..1,531.. | ..23.3%.. |
..Wisconsin.. | ..2,394.. | ..2,897.. | ..21.0%.. | ..3,319.. | ..38.6%.. | ..2,514.. | ..5.0%.. |
..Wyoming.. | ..192.. | ..233.. | ..21.4%.. | ..334.. | ..74.0%.. | ..192.. | ..0.0%.. |
..TOTAL.. | ..143,928.. | ..175,065.. | ..21.6%.. | ..198,165.. | ..37.7%.. | ..150,795.. | ..4.8%.. |
..MEDIAN.. | .. | .. | ..22.3%.. | .. | ..40.3%.. | .. | ..6.4%.. |
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