12 Worst States for Preliminary Q4 2022 Working-Age Deaths

The U.S. death count for working-age people was still high by historic standards in the fourth quarter of 2022, but it was starting to get back to normal. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recorded 150,795 deaths of people ages 25 through 64 from all causes for the eight weeks ending in October and November, and for the first two weeks ending in December. That was 4.8% higher than the number of deaths of working-age people recorded in the comparable period in 2019. In the third quarter of 2022, the number of deaths of working-age people was 11.4% higher than in 2019. Although the excess-death gap narrowed, it was still 10% or higher in 17 states and other jurisdictions that the CDC lists along with states in its weekly state-level death count reports, such as New York City, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia. For a look at the 12 jurisdictions with the biggest increase in the number of working-age deaths between 2019 and 2022 for the 10-week period running from October through mid-December, see the gallery.

What It Means

For the first time since January 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic surfaced, U.S. mortality for working-age people might be getting back to what financial professionals might think of as normal. But conditions vary from market to market.

The Backdrop

The number of serious COVID-19 cases appears to be spiking in China, and the CDC has reported a dramatic increase in the number of U.S. COVID-19 cases caused by the omicron XBB.1.5 variant. For financial professionals and their clients, the driving question will be whether the drop in working-age mortality in the fourth quarter was part of a long-lasting return to normal or a temporary lull.

..Deaths of People Ages 25-64, From All Causes, From Oct. 1 Through Mid-December
..	..2019	..2020	Change between 2019 & 2020	..2021	Change between 2019 & 2021	..2022	Change Between 2019 & 2022
..Alabama..	..2,967..	..3,559..	..20.0%..	..4,018..	..35.4%..	..3,065..	..3.3%..
..Alaska..	..282..	..371..	..31.6%..	..596..	..111.3%..	..238..	..-15.6%..
..Arizona..	..3,001..	..3,819..	..27.3%..	..4,961..	..65.3%..	..3,413..	..13.7%..
..Arkansas..	..1,664..	..2,224..	..33.7%..	..2,335..	..40.3%..	..1,831..	..10.0%..
..California..	..13,296..	..16,732..	..25.8%..	..17,719..	..33.3%..	..14,058..	..5.7%..
..Colorado..	..2,102..	..2,616..	..24.5%..	..3,435..	..63.4%..	..2,374..	..12.9%..
..Connecticut..	..1,368..	..1,594..	..16.5%..	..1,658..	..21.2%..	..1,455..	..6.4%..
..Delaware..	..448..	..429..	..-4.2%..	..573..	..27.9%..	..531..	..18.5%..
..District of Columbia..	..406..	..500..	..23.2%..	..540..	..33.0%..	..337..	..-17.0%..
..Florida..	..9,961..	..11,545..	..15.9%..	..12,855..	..29.1%..	..10,432..	..4.7%..
..Georgia..	..5,097..	..6,139..	..20.4%..	..7,111..	..39.5%..	..4,837..	..-5.1%..
..Hawaii..	..452..	..459..	..1.5%..	..584..	..29.2%..	..519..	..14.8%..
..Idaho..	..553..	..762..	..37.8%..	..1,160..	..109.8%..	..662..	..19.7%..
..Illinois..	..5,138..	..6,416..	..24.9%..	..6,558..	..27.6%..	..5,565..	..8.3%..
..Indiana..	..3,377..	..4,259..	..26.1%..	..4,796..	..42.0%..	..3,217..	..-4.7%..
..Iowa..	..1,274..	..1,582..	..24.2%..	..1,750..	..37.4%..	..1,109..	..-13.0%..
..Kansas..	..1,247..	..1,494..	..19.8%..	..1,602..	..28.5%..	..1,274..	..2.2%..
..Kentucky..	..2,743..	..3,624..	..32.1%..	..4,060..	..48.0%..	..2,837..	..3.4%..
..Louisiana..	..2,845..	..3,376..	..18.7%..	..3,462..	..21.7%..	..2,205..	..-22.5%..
..Maine..	..650..	..665..	..2.3%..	..930..	..43.1%..	..797..	..22.6%..
..Maryland..	..2,585..	..3,166..	..22.5%..	..3,158..	..22.2%..	..2,549..	..-1.4%..
..Massachusetts..	..2,607..	..2,718..	..4.3%..	..3,037..	..16.5%..	..2,703..	..3.7%..
..Michigan..	..4,755..	..5,766..	..21.3%..	..6,907..	..45.3%..	..5,126..	..7.8%..
..Minnesota..	..1,831..	..2,272..	..24.1%..	..2,783..	..52.0%..	..1,859..	..1.5%..
..Mississippi..	..1,823..	..2,397..	..31.5%..	..2,264..	..24.2%..	..1,952..	..7.1%..
..Missouri..	..3,343..	..4,237..	..26.7%..	..4,253..	..27.2%..	..3,047..	..-8.9%..
..Montana..	..404..	..617..	..52.7%..	..776..	..92.1%..	..518..	..28.2%..
..Nebraska..	..648..	..943..	..45.5%..	..1,044..	..61.1%..	..664..	..2.5%..
..Nevada..	..1,406..	..1,868..	..32.9%..	..2,027..	..44.2%..	..1,546..	..10.0%..
..New Hampshire..	..475..	..526..	..10.7%..	..663..	..39.6%..	..613..	..29.1%..
..New Jersey..	..3,326..	..3,930..	..18.2%..	..3,863..	..16.1%..	..3,403..	..2.3%..
..New Mexico..	..1,158..	..1,626..	..40.4%..	..1,896..	..63.7%..	..1,056..	..-8.8%..
..New York..	..4,059..	..4,639..	..14.3%..	..5,424..	..33.6%..	..4,708..	..16.0%..
..New York City..	..2,888..	..3,195..	..10.6%..	..3,392..	..17.5%..	..3,361..	..16.4%..
..North Carolina..	..5,043..	..5,974..	..18.5%..	..7,193..	..42.6%..	..5,468..	..8.4%..
..North Dakota..	..319..	..420..	..31.7%..	..526..	..64.9%..	..284..	..-11.0%..
..Ohio..	..6,340..	..7,455..	..17.6%..	..9,072..	..43.1%..	..6,518..	..2.8%..
..Oklahoma..	..2,153..	..2,750..	..27.7%..	..2,997..	..39.2%..	..2,227..	..3.4%..
..Oregon..	..1,649..	..1,888..	..14.5%..	..2,346..	..42.3%..	..1,806..	..9.5%..
..Pennsylvania..	..6,146..	..6,899..	..12.3%..	..8,401..	..36.7%..	..6,210..	..1.0%..
..Puerto Rico..	..1,314..	..1,535..	..16.8%..	..1,449..	..10.3%..	..1,516..	..15.4%..
..Rhode Island..	..351..	..434..	..23.6%..	..511..	..45.6%..	..385..	..9.7%..
..South Carolina..	..2,800..	..3,424..	..22.3%..	..3,958..	..41.4%..	..3,189..	..13.9%..
..South Dakota..	..339..	..465..	..37.2%..	..505..	..49.0%..	..266..	..-21.5%..
..Tennessee..	..4,399..	..5,455..	..24.0%..	..6,338..	..44.1%..	..4,816..	..9.5%..
..Texas..	..11,809..	..15,231..	..29.0%..	..16,694..	..41.4%..	..12,028..	..1.9%..
..Utah..	..953..	..1,188..	..24.7%..	..1,473..	..54.6%..	..1,021..	..7.1%..
..Vermont..	..208..	..209..	..0.5%..	..268..	..28.8%..	..224..	..7.7%..
..Virginia..	..3,378..	..4,033..	..19.4%..	..4,791..	..41.8%..	..3,720..	..10.1%..
..Washington..	..2,720..	..3,017..	..10.9%..	..3,815..	..40.3%..	..3,019..	..11.0%..
..West Virginia..	..1,242..	..1,493..	..20.2%..	..1,985..	..59.8%..	..1,531..	..23.3%..
..Wisconsin..	..2,394..	..2,897..	..21.0%..	..3,319..	..38.6%..	..2,514..	..5.0%..
..Wyoming..	..192..	..233..	..21.4%..	..334..	..74.0%..	..192..	..0.0%..
..TOTAL..	..143,928..	..175,065..	..21.6%..	..198,165..	..37.7%..	..150,795..	..4.8%..
..MEDIAN..	..	..	..22.3%..	..	..40.3%..	..	..6.4%..

(Image: CIA)