12 Worst States for November Deaths

Death statistics for November show that overall U.S. mortality is following the same path it's been following since February. The total number of deaths from all causes is much lower than it was around the same time in 2021, but still much higher than it was during the comparable periods before the COVID-19 pandemic began, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's excess death data reports. Overall, the November count in the typical state was 12% lower than in November 2021, but 8.4% higher than the 2017-2019 average.

What It Means

Mortality is still high enough to throw off any cost or income projections that rely on accurate life expectancy forecasts.

Methods

We started with the CDC's "predicted" all-cause death counts, or counts adjusted to compensate for the fact that some states take much longer to send the CDC their numbers than others. We then made two sets of comparisons: with the predicted numbers for November 2021, and with the average of the predicted numbers for November 2017, November 2018 and November 2019.

The Question for December

COVID-19, influenza and other respiratory diseases, such as RSV, are filling hospital emergency rooms, and crowding out patients with other conditions, right now. One question is whether the current wave of respiratory infections will have much direct effect on mortality — and whether the wave will lead to add-on mortality for unrelated conditions — by hurting people's ability to get care for other deadly health problems.

State Numbers

When compared with the 2017-2019 baseline period figures, state-level changes ranged from a decrease of 24%, in Louisiana, up to an increase of more than 28%, in one hard-hit state. For a look at the 12 hardest-hit states, see the gallery. For data for all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, see the chart below.

Total U.S. Deaths in November