20 Worst States for Excess Q3 Working-Age Mortality
Working-age U.S. residents had a much higher death rate in the third quarter than they did in the comparable period in the year before the COVID-19 pandemic began. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 184,633 people in the 25-64 age group died from all causes in July, August and September. The death count for the 25-64 age group was 25% lower than the count for the third quarter of 2021, but it was still 11.4% higher than the count for the third quarter of 2019. The numbers for working-age people are similar to the numbers for the general population. For the U.S. population as a whole, the third-quarter death count was 10.6% lower than the count for the third quarter of 2021, but 13.6% higher than the count for the third quarter of 2019.
States Leading the Pack
For a look at the states with the biggest increases in all-cause mortality for people ages 25 through 64, see the gallery above. The state-level changes range from a decrease of 10.3%, in Rhode Island, up to an increase of nearly 50%, in another New England state. For data on all 50 states and some other jurisdictions, such as the District of Columbia, see the table below.
The CDC Statistics
The numbers here come from the CDC's Weekly Counts of Deaths by Jurisdiction and Age reports. Some states report the data that populates that spreadsheet more quickly than others. The numbers reflect many causes of death other than COVID-19 itself, including the effects of the pandemic on the economy and the health care system, and the effects of COVID-19 vaccinations and treatments. The figures for the general population imply that, if mortality trends for the third quarter continued throughout an entire year there might be about 360,000 extra deaths, on top of the pre-pandemic average of about 2.7 million. For working-age people, the third-quarter figures imply an impact of about 90,000 extra U.S. deaths per year, on top of a pre-pandemic average of about 790,000 deaths of U.S. working-age people per year.
U.S. Working-Age Deaths in the Third Quarter
| Change between… | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2021 | Q3 2022 | Q3 2019 and Q3 2021 | Q3 2019 and Q3 2022 | Q3 2021 and Q3 2022 | |
| Alabama | 3,446 | 4,485 | 6,005 | 3,802 | 74.3% | 10.3% | -36.7% |
| Alaska | 290 | 428 | 592 | 386 | 104.1% | 33.1% | -34.8% |
| Arizona | 3,583 | 5,700 | 5,515 | 4,456 | 53.9% | 24.4% | -19.2% |
| Arkansas | 1,941 | 2,510 | 3,304 | 2,171 | 70.2% | 11.8% | -34.3% |
| California | 15,062 | 20,335 | 21,825 | 18,019 | 44.9% | 19.6% | -17.4% |
| Colorado | 2,484 | 2,941 | 3,377 | 2,845 | 36.0% | 14.5% | -15.8% |
| Connecticut | 1,594 | 1,814 | 1,943 | 1,741 | 21.9% | 9.2% | -10.4% |
| Delaware | 550 | 564 | 613 | 589 | 11.5% | 7.1% | -3.9% |
| District of Columbia | 433 | 608 | 603 | 489 | 39.3% | 12.9% | -18.9% |
| Florida | 11,433 | 15,104 | 22,058 | 12,793 | 92.9% | 11.9% | -42.0% |
| Georgia | 5,708 | 7,815 | 10,298 | 6,192 | 80.4% | 8.5% | -39.9% |
| Hawaii | 594 | 614 | 919 | 545 | 54.7% | -8.2% | -40.7% |
| Idaho | 656 | 937 | 1,202 | 848 | 83.2% | 29.3% | -29.5% |
| Illinois | 5,917 | 6,804 | 7,431 | 6,441 | 25.6% | 8.9% | -13.3% |
| Indiana | 3,861 | 4,518 | 5,309 | 4,234 | 37.5% | 9.7% | -20.2% |
| Iowa | 1,509 | 1,709 | 1,837 | 1,459 | 21.7% | -3.3% | -20.6% |
| Kansas | 1,414 | 1,631 | 2,001 | 1,548 | 41.5% | 9.5% | -22.6% |
| Kentucky | 3,240 | 3,899 | 4,944 | 3,436 | 52.6% | 6.0% | -30.5% |
| Louisiana | 3,235 | 4,109 | 5,531 | 3,188 | 71.0% | -1.5% | -42.4% |
| Maine | 695 | 801 | 934 | 898 | 34.4% | 29.2% | -3.9% |
| Maryland | 3,128 | 3,601 | 3,531 | 3,038 | 12.9% | -2.9% | -14.0% |
| Massachusetts | 2,999 | 3,109 | 3,322 | 3,178 | 10.8% | 6.0% | -4.3% |
| Michigan | 5,454 | 6,184 | 6,499 | 5,960 | 19.2% | 9.3% | -8.3% |
| Minnesota | 2,159 | 2,540 | 2,696 | 2,335 | 24.9% | 8.2% | -13.4% |
| Mississippi | 2,210 | 3,005 | 3,810 | 2,327 | 72.4% | 5.3% | -38.9% |
| Missouri | 4,058 | 4,524 | 5,892 | 3,833 | 45.2% | -5.5% | -34.9% |
| Montana | 490 | 613 | 810 | 672 | 65.3% | 37.1% | -17.0% |
| Nebraska | 797 | 925 | 1,029 | 878 | 29.1% | 10.2% | -14.7% |
| Nevada | 1,691 | 2,256 | 2,887 | 1,976 | 70.7% | 16.9% | -31.6% |
| New Hampshire | 600 | 598 | 723 | 697 | 20.5% | 16.2% | -3.6% |
| New Jersey | 3,829 | 4,204 | 4,471 | 3,988 | 16.8% | 4.2% | -10.8% |
| New Mexico | 1,351 | 1,603 | 1,980 | 1,429 | 46.6% | 5.8% | -27.8% |
| New York | 4,745 | 5,357 | 5,882 | 5,371 | 24.0% | 13.2% | -8.7% |
| New York City | 3,282 | 3,691 | 3,966 | 3,857 | 20.8% | 17.5% | -2.7% |
| North Carolina | 5,699 | 7,127 | 9,032 | 6,662 | 58.5% | 16.9% | -26.2% |
| North Dakota | 311 | 347 | 415 | 364 | 33.4% | 17.0% | -12.3% |
| Ohio | 7,253 | 8,334 | 9,355 | 7,659 | 29.0% | 5.6% | -18.1% |
| Oklahoma | 2,469 | 2,853 | 3,995 | 2,727 | 61.8% | 10.4% | -31.7% |
| Oregon | 1,935 | 2,199 | 2,871 | 2,270 | 48.4% | 17.3% | -20.9% |
| Pennsylvania | 7,001 | 7,731 | 8,292 | 7,194 | 18.4% | 2.8% | -13.2% |
| Puerto Rico | 1,615 | 1,797 | 1,900 | 1,806 | 17.6% | 11.8% | -4.9% |
| Rhode Island | 476 | 497 | 501 | 427 | 5.3% | -10.3% | -14.8% |
| South Carolina | 3,189 | 4,247 | 5,184 | 3,728 | 62.6% | 16.9% | -28.1% |
| South Dakota | 387 | 486 | 514 | 391 | 32.8% | 1.0% | -23.9% |
| Tennessee | 5,007 | 6,384 | 8,324 | 5,702 | 66.2% | 13.9% | -31.5% |
| Texas | 13,403 | 19,446 | 24,295 | 15,202 | 81.3% | 13.4% | -37.4% |
| Utah | 1,083 | 1,365 | 1,629 | 1,242 | 50.4% | 14.7% | -23.8% |
| Vermont | 202 | 264 | 337 | 298 | 66.8% | 47.5% | -11.6% |
| Virginia | 3,886 | 4,766 | 5,377 | 4,540 | 38.4% | 16.8% | -15.6% |
| Washington | 3,121 | 3,672 | 4,537 | 3,891 | 45.4% | 24.7% | -14.2% |
| West Virginia | 1,419 | 1,659 | 2,134 | 1,716 | 50.4% | 20.9% | -19.6% |
| Wisconsin | 2,694 | 3,102 | 3,359 | 2,974 | 24.7% | 10.4% | -11.5% |
| Wyoming | 229 | 291 | 392 | 251 | 71.2% | 9.6% | -36.0% |
| TOTAL | 165,817 | 206,103 | 246,182 | 184,663 | 48.5% | 11.4% | -25.0% |
| MEDIAN | 44.9% | 10.4% | -19.2% | ||||
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