20 Worst States for Excess Q3 Working-Age Mortality

Working-age U.S. residents had a much higher death rate in the third quarter than they did in the comparable period in the year before the COVID-19 pandemic began. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says 184,633 people in the 25-64 age group died from all causes in July, August and September. The death count for the 25-64 age group was 25% lower than the count for the third quarter of 2021, but it was still 11.4% higher than the count for the third quarter of 2019. The numbers for working-age people are similar to the numbers for the general population. For the U.S. population as a whole, the third-quarter death count was 10.6% lower than the count for the third quarter of 2021, but 13.6% higher than the count for the third quarter of 2019.

States Leading the Pack

For a look at the states with the biggest increases in all-cause mortality for people ages 25 through 64, see the gallery above. The state-level changes range from a decrease of 10.3%, in Rhode Island, up to an increase of nearly 50%, in another New England state. For data on all 50 states and some other jurisdictions, such as the District of Columbia, see the table below.

The CDC Statistics

The numbers here come from the CDC's Weekly Counts of Deaths by Jurisdiction and Age reports. Some states report the data that populates that spreadsheet more quickly than others. The numbers reflect many causes of death other than COVID-19 itself, including the effects of the pandemic on the economy and the health care system, and the effects of COVID-19 vaccinations and treatments. The figures for the general population imply that, if mortality trends for the third quarter continued throughout an entire year there might be about 360,000 extra deaths, on top of the pre-pandemic average of about 2.7 million. For working-age people, the third-quarter figures imply an impact of about 90,000 extra U.S. deaths per year, on top of a pre-pandemic average of about 790,000 deaths of U.S. working-age people per year.

U.S. Working-Age Deaths in the Third Quarter

					Change between…
	Q3 2019	Q3 2020	Q3 2021	Q3 2022	Q3 2019 and Q3 2021	Q3 2019 and Q3 2022	Q3 2021 and Q3 2022
Alabama	3,446	4,485	6,005	3,802	74.3%	10.3%	-36.7%
Alaska	290	428	592	386	104.1%	33.1%	-34.8%
Arizona	3,583	5,700	5,515	4,456	53.9%	24.4%	-19.2%
Arkansas	1,941	2,510	3,304	2,171	70.2%	11.8%	-34.3%
California	15,062	20,335	21,825	18,019	44.9%	19.6%	-17.4%
Colorado	2,484	2,941	3,377	2,845	36.0%	14.5%	-15.8%
Connecticut	1,594	1,814	1,943	1,741	21.9%	9.2%	-10.4%
Delaware	550	564	613	589	11.5%	7.1%	-3.9%
District of Columbia	433	608	603	489	39.3%	12.9%	-18.9%
Florida	11,433	15,104	22,058	12,793	92.9%	11.9%	-42.0%
Georgia	5,708	7,815	10,298	6,192	80.4%	8.5%	-39.9%
Hawaii	594	614	919	545	54.7%	-8.2%	-40.7%
Idaho	656	937	1,202	848	83.2%	29.3%	-29.5%
Illinois	5,917	6,804	7,431	6,441	25.6%	8.9%	-13.3%
Indiana	3,861	4,518	5,309	4,234	37.5%	9.7%	-20.2%
Iowa	1,509	1,709	1,837	1,459	21.7%	-3.3%	-20.6%
Kansas	1,414	1,631	2,001	1,548	41.5%	9.5%	-22.6%
Kentucky	3,240	3,899	4,944	3,436	52.6%	6.0%	-30.5%
Louisiana	3,235	4,109	5,531	3,188	71.0%	-1.5%	-42.4%
Maine	695	801	934	898	34.4%	29.2%	-3.9%
Maryland	3,128	3,601	3,531	3,038	12.9%	-2.9%	-14.0%
Massachusetts	2,999	3,109	3,322	3,178	10.8%	6.0%	-4.3%
Michigan	5,454	6,184	6,499	5,960	19.2%	9.3%	-8.3%
Minnesota	2,159	2,540	2,696	2,335	24.9%	8.2%	-13.4%
Mississippi	2,210	3,005	3,810	2,327	72.4%	5.3%	-38.9%
Missouri	4,058	4,524	5,892	3,833	45.2%	-5.5%	-34.9%
Montana	490	613	810	672	65.3%	37.1%	-17.0%
Nebraska	797	925	1,029	878	29.1%	10.2%	-14.7%
Nevada	1,691	2,256	2,887	1,976	70.7%	16.9%	-31.6%
New Hampshire	600	598	723	697	20.5%	16.2%	-3.6%
New Jersey	3,829	4,204	4,471	3,988	16.8%	4.2%	-10.8%
New Mexico	1,351	1,603	1,980	1,429	46.6%	5.8%	-27.8%
New York	4,745	5,357	5,882	5,371	24.0%	13.2%	-8.7%
New York City	3,282	3,691	3,966	3,857	20.8%	17.5%	-2.7%
North Carolina	5,699	7,127	9,032	6,662	58.5%	16.9%	-26.2%
North Dakota	311	347	415	364	33.4%	17.0%	-12.3%
Ohio	7,253	8,334	9,355	7,659	29.0%	5.6%	-18.1%
Oklahoma	2,469	2,853	3,995	2,727	61.8%	10.4%	-31.7%
Oregon	1,935	2,199	2,871	2,270	48.4%	17.3%	-20.9%
Pennsylvania	7,001	7,731	8,292	7,194	18.4%	2.8%	-13.2%
Puerto Rico	1,615	1,797	1,900	1,806	17.6%	11.8%	-4.9%
Rhode Island	476	497	501	427	5.3%	-10.3%	-14.8%
South Carolina	3,189	4,247	5,184	3,728	62.6%	16.9%	-28.1%
South Dakota	387	486	514	391	32.8%	1.0%	-23.9%
Tennessee	5,007	6,384	8,324	5,702	66.2%	13.9%	-31.5%
Texas	13,403	19,446	24,295	15,202	81.3%	13.4%	-37.4%
Utah	1,083	1,365	1,629	1,242	50.4%	14.7%	-23.8%
Vermont	202	264	337	298	66.8%	47.5%	-11.6%
Virginia	3,886	4,766	5,377	4,540	38.4%	16.8%	-15.6%
Washington	3,121	3,672	4,537	3,891	45.4%	24.7%	-14.2%
West Virginia	1,419	1,659	2,134	1,716	50.4%	20.9%	-19.6%
Wisconsin	2,694	3,102	3,359	2,974	24.7%	10.4%	-11.5%
Wyoming	229	291	392	251	71.2%	9.6%	-36.0%
TOTAL	165,817	206,103	246,182	184,663	48.5%	11.4%	-25.0%
MEDIAN					44.9%	10.4%	-19.2%

(Image: Thinkstock)