20 Worst States for Excess Q3 Deaths
Overall U.S. mortality was more than 10% higher in the third quarter than it was during the comparable period before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention death counts shows that the total number of deaths in the third quarter was 773,354. That was down 10.6% from the total recorded from July through September 2021, but up 13.6% from the total recorded in the third quarter of 2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. For a look at the 20 states with the worst increase in the number of deaths between the third quarter of 2019 and the latest quarter, see the gallery above. For data for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, see the table below.
What It Means
Life may be returning to normal, and life insurers may report a sharp decrease in pandemic-related death claims, but, for now, excess mortality may still be high enough to throw off the longevity projections used in efforts to help clients buy life insurance, analyze post-retirement income needs and allocate funds for purchases of annuities or other income-generating arrangements.
The CDC Data
The CDC report used here provides statistics for deaths of people of all ages from all causes. COVID-19 itself is one of many factors that could be increasing mortality. Other factors could include the after-effects of COVID-19; the health damage COVID-19 has caused to people not known to have had COVID-19; the effects of social distancing restrictions and pandemic response efforts on the economy, people's emotional well-being and the health care system; the side effects of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments; and other drivers, such as outbreaks of influenza and other illnesses not caused by the virus that causes COVID-19.
Fourth Quarter Statistics
The CDC's state-level death count statistics take months to firm up. The earliest available numbers, which come from the CDC's weekly flu reports, show that the total number of deaths occurring in the first three weeks of the fourth quarter was down 6.1% from the total recorded for the comparable period in 2021 but 10.1% higher than in the comparable period in 2019.
Total U.S. Deaths in the Third Quarter
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | Change from 2019 | Change from 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 12,740 | 16,486 | 17,885 | 14,192 | 11.4% | -20.6% |
| Alaska | 1,052 | 1,275 | 1,636 | 1,354 | 28.7% | -17.2% |
| Arizona | 14,404 | 20,584 | 19,050 | 17,246 | 19.7% | -9.5% |
| Arkansas | 7,513 | 9,415 | 10,605 | 8,665 | 15.3% | -18.3% |
| California | 62,458 | 78,694 | 76,964 | 73,672 | 18.0% | -4.3% |
| Colorado | 9,423 | 10,649 | 11,591 | 10,947 | 16.2% | -5.6% |
| Connecticut | 7,469 | 7,512 | 8,147 | 8,125 | 8.8% | -0.3% |
| Delaware | 2,312 | 2,521 | 2,626 | 2,680 | 15.9% | 2.1% |
| District of Columbia | 1,483 | 1,611 | 1,653 | 1,588 | 7.1% | -3.9% |
| Florida | 49,215 | 66,508 | 76,792 | 58,142 | 18.1% | -24.3% |
| Georgia | 20,637 | 27,268 | 30,226 | 23,830 | 15.5% | -21.2% |
| Hawaii | 2,837 | 3,053 | 3,458 | 3,199 | 12.8% | -7.5% |
| Idaho | 3,357 | 4,138 | 4,723 | 4,219 | 25.7% | -10.7% |
| Illinois | 24,820 | 27,751 | 28,638 | 27,234 | 9.7% | -4.9% |
| Indiana | 15,624 | 17,660 | 19,049 | 17,669 | 13.1% | -7.2% |
| Iowa | 7,259 | 8,216 | 8,107 | 7,810 | 7.6% | -3.7% |
| Kansas | 6,269 | 7,192 | 7,678 | 7,002 | 11.7% | -8.8% |
| Kentucky | 11,450 | 13,243 | 15,375 | 13,034 | 13.8% | -15.2% |
| Louisiana | 10,910 | 14,438 | 16,024 | 11,963 | 9.7% | -25.3% |
| Maine | 3,559 | 3,797 | 4,040 | 4,037 | 13.4% | -0.1% |
| Maryland | 11,812 | 13,394 | 12,981 | 12,696 | 7.5% | -2.2% |
| Massachusetts | 13,911 | 13,652 | 14,624 | 15,033 | 8.1% | 2.8% |
| Michigan | 23,242 | 25,180 | 25,780 | 26,070 | 12.2% | 1.1% |
| Minnesota | 10,899 | 11,631 | 11,994 | 11,882 | 9.0% | -0.9% |
| Mississippi | 7,583 | 10,392 | 11,142 | 8,720 | 15.0% | -21.7% |
| Missouri | 15,580 | 17,875 | 19,888 | 16,707 | 7.2% | -16.0% |
| Montana | 2,494 | 2,788 | 3,318 | 2,983 | 19.6% | -10.1% |
| Nebraska | 4,046 | 4,485 | 4,543 | 4,392 | 8.6% | -3.3% |
| Nevada | 6,290 | 7,979 | 8,876 | 7,387 | 17.4% | -16.8% |
| New Hampshire | 2,942 | 3,146 | 3,267 | 3,431 | 16.6% | 5.0% |
| New Jersey | 17,373 | 17,769 | 18,772 | 18,553 | 6.8% | -1.2% |
| New Mexico | 4,515 | 5,308 | 5,717 | 5,139 | 13.8% | -10.1% |
| New York | 23,580 | 24,288 | 26,101 | 25,603 | 8.6% | -1.9% |
| New York City | 12,762 | 12,832 | 13,871 | 14,018 | 9.8% | 1.1% |
| North Carolina | 22,721 | 27,277 | 29,782 | 26,293 | 15.7% | -11.7% |
| North Dakota | 1,756 | 1,869 | 1,865 | 1,877 | 6.9% | 0.6% |
| Ohio | 29,379 | 33,218 | 33,849 | 31,601 | 7.6% | -6.6% |
| Oklahoma | 9,358 | 10,825 | 12,875 | 10,715 | 14.5% | -16.8% |
| Oregon | 8,775 | 9,738 | 11,854 | 10,303 | 17.4% | -13.1% |
| Pennsylvania | 31,537 | 33,955 | 34,638 | 33,260 | 5.5% | -4.0% |
| Puerto Rico | 7,154 | 8,174 | 8,493 | 8,926 | 24.8% | 5.1% |
| Rhode Island | 2,522 | 2,534 | 2,617 | 2,589 | 2.7% | -1.1% |
| South Carolina | 11,830 | 16,262 | 16,517 | 14,069 | 18.9% | -14.8% |
| South Dakota | 2,033 | 2,284 | 2,250 | 2,151 | 5.8% | -4.4% |
| Tennessee | 17,891 | 21,735 | 24,702 | 20,447 | 14.3% | -17.2% |
| Texas | 48,737 | 69,740 | 71,889 | 57,326 | 17.6% | -20.3% |
| Utah | 4,555 | 5,439 | 5,915 | 5,387 | 18.3% | -8.9% |
| Vermont | 1,290 | 1,438 | 1,712 | 1,618 | 25.4% | -5.5% |
| Virginia | 16,563 | 18,970 | 20,205 | 19,293 | 16.5% | -4.5% |
| Washington | 13,546 | 15,334 | 17,924 | 16,668 | 23.0% | -7.0% |
| West Virginia | 5,299 | 6,064 | 6,955 | 6,361 | 20.0% | -8.5% |
| Wisconsin | 12,941 | 14,027 | 14,463 | 13,890 | 7.3% | -4.0% |
| Wyoming | 1,137 | 1,334 | 1,508 | 1,358 | 19.4% | -9.9% |
| TOTAL | 680,844 | 812,947 | 865,154 | 773,354 | 13.6% | -10.6% |
| MEDIAN | 13.8% | -7.0% |
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