20 Worst States for Excess Q3 Deaths

Overall U.S. mortality was more than 10% higher in the third quarter than it was during the comparable period before the COVID-19 pandemic began. Analysis of U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention death counts shows that the total number of deaths in the third quarter was 773,354. That was down 10.6% from the total recorded from July through September 2021, but up 13.6% from the total recorded in the third quarter of 2019 — before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States. For a look at the 20 states with the worst increase in the number of deaths between the third quarter of 2019 and the latest quarter, see the gallery above. For data for all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, see the table below.

What It Means

Life may be returning to normal, and life insurers may report a sharp decrease in pandemic-related death claims, but, for now, excess mortality may still be high enough to throw off the longevity projections used in efforts to help clients buy life insurance, analyze post-retirement income needs and allocate funds for purchases of annuities or other income-generating arrangements.

The CDC Data

The CDC report used here provides statistics for deaths of people of all ages from all causes. COVID-19 itself is one of many factors that could be increasing mortality. Other factors could include the after-effects of COVID-19; the health damage COVID-19 has caused to people not known to have had COVID-19; the effects of social distancing restrictions and pandemic response efforts on the economy, people's emotional well-being and the health care system; the side effects of COVID-19 vaccines and treatments; and other drivers, such as outbreaks of influenza and other illnesses not caused by the virus that causes COVID-19.

Fourth Quarter Statistics

The CDC's state-level death count statistics take months to firm up. The earliest available numbers, which come from the CDC's weekly flu reports, show that the total number of deaths occurring in the first three weeks of the fourth quarter was down 6.1% from the total recorded for the comparable period in 2021 but 10.1% higher than in the comparable period in 2019.

Total U.S. Deaths in the Third Quarter

	2019	2020	2021	2022	Change from 2019	Change from 2021
Alabama	12,740	16,486	17,885	14,192	11.4%	-20.6%
Alaska	1,052	1,275	1,636	1,354	28.7%	-17.2%
Arizona	14,404	20,584	19,050	17,246	19.7%	-9.5%
Arkansas	7,513	9,415	10,605	8,665	15.3%	-18.3%
California	62,458	78,694	76,964	73,672	18.0%	-4.3%
Colorado	9,423	10,649	11,591	10,947	16.2%	-5.6%
Connecticut	7,469	7,512	8,147	8,125	8.8%	-0.3%
Delaware	2,312	2,521	2,626	2,680	15.9%	2.1%
District of Columbia	1,483	1,611	1,653	1,588	7.1%	-3.9%
Florida	49,215	66,508	76,792	58,142	18.1%	-24.3%
Georgia	20,637	27,268	30,226	23,830	15.5%	-21.2%
Hawaii	2,837	3,053	3,458	3,199	12.8%	-7.5%
Idaho	3,357	4,138	4,723	4,219	25.7%	-10.7%
Illinois	24,820	27,751	28,638	27,234	9.7%	-4.9%
Indiana	15,624	17,660	19,049	17,669	13.1%	-7.2%
Iowa	7,259	8,216	8,107	7,810	7.6%	-3.7%
Kansas	6,269	7,192	7,678	7,002	11.7%	-8.8%
Kentucky	11,450	13,243	15,375	13,034	13.8%	-15.2%
Louisiana	10,910	14,438	16,024	11,963	9.7%	-25.3%
Maine	3,559	3,797	4,040	4,037	13.4%	-0.1%
Maryland	11,812	13,394	12,981	12,696	7.5%	-2.2%
Massachusetts	13,911	13,652	14,624	15,033	8.1%	2.8%
Michigan	23,242	25,180	25,780	26,070	12.2%	1.1%
Minnesota	10,899	11,631	11,994	11,882	9.0%	-0.9%
Mississippi	7,583	10,392	11,142	8,720	15.0%	-21.7%
Missouri	15,580	17,875	19,888	16,707	7.2%	-16.0%
Montana	2,494	2,788	3,318	2,983	19.6%	-10.1%
Nebraska	4,046	4,485	4,543	4,392	8.6%	-3.3%
Nevada	6,290	7,979	8,876	7,387	17.4%	-16.8%
New Hampshire	2,942	3,146	3,267	3,431	16.6%	5.0%
New Jersey	17,373	17,769	18,772	18,553	6.8%	-1.2%
New Mexico	4,515	5,308	5,717	5,139	13.8%	-10.1%
New York	23,580	24,288	26,101	25,603	8.6%	-1.9%
New York City	12,762	12,832	13,871	14,018	9.8%	1.1%
North Carolina	22,721	27,277	29,782	26,293	15.7%	-11.7%
North Dakota	1,756	1,869	1,865	1,877	6.9%	0.6%
Ohio	29,379	33,218	33,849	31,601	7.6%	-6.6%
Oklahoma	9,358	10,825	12,875	10,715	14.5%	-16.8%
Oregon	8,775	9,738	11,854	10,303	17.4%	-13.1%
Pennsylvania	31,537	33,955	34,638	33,260	5.5%	-4.0%
Puerto Rico	7,154	8,174	8,493	8,926	24.8%	5.1%
Rhode Island	2,522	2,534	2,617	2,589	2.7%	-1.1%
South Carolina	11,830	16,262	16,517	14,069	18.9%	-14.8%
South Dakota	2,033	2,284	2,250	2,151	5.8%	-4.4%
Tennessee	17,891	21,735	24,702	20,447	14.3%	-17.2%
Texas	48,737	69,740	71,889	57,326	17.6%	-20.3%
Utah	4,555	5,439	5,915	5,387	18.3%	-8.9%
Vermont	1,290	1,438	1,712	1,618	25.4%	-5.5%
Virginia	16,563	18,970	20,205	19,293	16.5%	-4.5%
Washington	13,546	15,334	17,924	16,668	23.0%	-7.0%
West Virginia	5,299	6,064	6,955	6,361	20.0%	-8.5%
Wisconsin	12,941	14,027	14,463	13,890	7.3%	-4.0%
Wyoming	1,137	1,334	1,508	1,358	19.4%	-9.9%
TOTAL	680,844	812,947	865,154	773,354	13.6%	-10.6%
MEDIAN					13.8%	-7.0%

(Image: Elise Amendola/AP)