Investment advisors and asset managers agree that the current year-to-date period in the U.S. and global equity markets represents one of the most challenging times ever seen for the typical investor.
Asset managers say aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve being undertaken to address red-hot inflation will likely damage the U.S. economy and have an impact on the rest of the world. The widespread concerns about inflation and growth — and the real possibility of a global recession in late 2022 or early 2023 — has wiped trillions of dollars of value from both equity and bond markets, and sources agree more pain seems to be in store.
While market participants of all types are suffering, there is a special degree of discomfort being felt by retirement investors, says Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. Early on Wednesday, Sonders tweeted out fresh data from the Investment Company Institute showing retirement plan assets have fallen further so far this year than ever before in a comparable period of time.
A big reason why, as Sonders and others point out, is that U.S. retirement investors carry a significant home bias on the equity and fixed income sides of their portfolios. So far in 2022, U.S. stocks, in particular, have been significant loss leaders, to the extent that some experts say the U.S. markets are actually substantially undervalued currently.
In fact, Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar Research Services, wrote earlier this month that the global market appears "overly pessimistic" about long-term equity valuations, especially for U.S.-based companies.
"With equities selling off 24% year to date, it appears to us that the market has overcorrected to the downside," Sekera says. "Equities have rarely traded at such a deep discount to their intrinsic valuation."
Against this backdrop, Sonders' Wednesday morning tweet sparked comments of commiseration and consternation from both big-name Wall Street professionals and Main Street investors alike. While some, like Sekera, see reason to think there are good buying opportunities today, there is still near uniform agreement that substantial and painful volatility is unlikely to abate any time soon.
For its part, the ICI data shows that, as of the end of the second quarter of 2022, around 41% of U.S. retirement accounts' mutual fund investments were in funds focused on U.S. stocks. Another 40% was held in hybrid funds and bond funds, few of which have fared particularly well this year. Currently, Bloomberg's U.S. Aggregate Equity Return Index is down 20%, while the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index is down 15%.
